A Deep Analysis Of Tesla Stock (Including Intrinsic Value)

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A Deep Analysis of Tesla stock in 2021. Is Tesla A Buy? What Is the intrinsic value of Tesla stock? Let’s get to work and answer these vital questions.

📚 Chapters 📚

00:00: Tesla - A Nerd Analysis
00:33: Tesla’s Core Business
02:06: How much is the car side worth?
04:15: Tesla Energy
06:42: Tesla Ride Hailing (Self-Driving) & Tesla Insurance.
09:07: The Numbers

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Tesla. Elon Musk has built this company into one of the biggest businesses in the world. It’s also fair to say, it’s the most popular stock in the entire stock market. The problem with Tesla, is we’re not getting deep, fundamental research on the stock. All we see is short-term news, short-term results & surface level analysis.

What I want to do in this video, because I’m a massive stock nerd, is dive deep into Tesla stock. We’ll break each part of Tesla’s business down and ultimately put an intrinsic value on the stock…

The core to Tesla’s business is their electric cars. We all know this. They have 4 main cars that they sell. The model S, the model 3, the model X & The Model Y. Out of these the Model S, the luxury sedan, was the first to be produced, launched in June 2012. This car was ground breaking at the time and won several awards including becoming the first electric car to top the monthly sales ranking of a country.
The model X was next to be launched in September 2015, the midsize luxury crossover, retailing for a price around $88 thousand dollars.

Then came what I call the ground-breaking car for Tesla, the model 3 sedan. This is ground breaking because it was the car that finally made electric vehicles affordable to the everyday person. The model 3 costs around $35,000.

And this is where you saw tesla really take off as a company. Their sales for model 3 just shot up ever since it was released and as of today
It is by far the most popular selling electric car dominating close to all the first world nations…

Tesla’s most recent car is the model Y, the electric crossover utility vehicle and straight away we’ve seen sales overtake both the model X & the model Y.

So it’s fair to say that the core of Tesla’s business is doing well in terms of growth. In 2020 alone we saw almost 500,000 vehicles produced and delivered, something which many predicted would never happen.

But the question is, how much is this car side of their business worth. That’s a tough one, but let’s try answer it.

So 2020, they delivered 500,000 vehicles. Now that numbers not going to stay at 500,000. Tesla are a high growth company. The CEO, Elon Musk of course, he’s got an ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars by 2030.

Some of you might say that’s not realistic, but he’s achieved many of the things people said he couldn’t in the past. Now let’s assume that the average price of the vehicle sold is around $50k. Obviously the model 3 is less, the model X is more than that, the cybertruck of course will also be much more than that. But on average we’ll say $50k.
So $50k per vehicle times by the forecasted 20 million vehicles sold, is $1 trillion dollars in car sales revenue, by 2030.
We’ll say that by 2030 they can deliver net profit margins of 10% per vehicle. That means in terms of profit / earnings same thing, purely for their car business, they can generate $100 billion per year.

If we times that by the average market price to earnings ratio over time which is 15, it means that the car side of their business alone could be worth $1.5 trillion dollars by 2030.

Now this depends on a range of forecasts and factors, but if all goes well $1.5 trillion dollars, purely based on car sales is possible.

If all goes terribly and let’s say we see an economic collapse, and people can’t afford buying new electric vehicles, well it could be a whole lot less than that…

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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.