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ACC & College Football Realignment Roulette! What happens in expansion?
If the 7 ACC schools successfully recruit one more school to dissolve their grant of rights, what happens with realignment? Let's check out some options.
First off, what's the likeliest 8th team to join and dissolve the grant of rights? I've seen different reports on whether or not Notre Dame would count. The Irish are a full ACC member in everything but football, so maybe? But if it's not Notre Dame... then who?
The remaining schools are Louisville, Pitt, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and Wake Forest.
Would the Big Ten want to bring in Georgia Tech or Duke? Maybe, if they decide to become a 24 team league... but as I've said before - what's the point of diminishing returns? When do we reach the point that bringing in another school to the Big Ten or SEC starts to take money away from the schools already in the conference?
But let's look at some fun options. Stuff that may not be likely, but could potentially be something that - if the money works - could happen.
Let's say the ACC's Magnificent 7 don't want to split up - they just want more money. So they dissolve the ACC and create a new conference. Let's say they keep Duke, for the Duke - NC State - North Carolina rivalries, and that would make 8. So we're looking at Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State and Miami.
Those 8 would need to bring in some more schools, just for the content. Let's say those ACC schools reach out to some Pac 12 schools. Oregon and Washington obviously want more money. But let's bring in 2 more schools that could help this make sense. Most likely, you'd try to keep the in-state schools together - Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State.
So if you've got a conference that can provide football matchups like Oregon vs Clemson, Washington vs Florida State, etc, how much more would that be worth? Could those schools then draw $45M annually? Right now, ESPN pays around $504M annually for the ACC - just in baseline contracts. Around $36M per year. If you move to 12 schools, making $45M per year, you're now looking at $540M annually, so $36M more than they currently pay, and ESPN basically trims the fat, and now has more states for their ACC Network, which would change names to something like the PACC.
If Oregon and Washington can leave Oregon St and Washington St, maybe Utah and Colorado, or Arizona and Arizona State make more sense for ESPN and their conference network. Imagine a basketball conference with Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Arizona as the big dogs.
So what about the schools that are left over? Assuming that Notre Dame decides to join the Big Ten, you've got Pitt, Boston College, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Wake Forest. You've likely got the foundations for a pretty fun basketball conference, but you could also bring in the stronger leftover AAC schools - Memphis, USF, Tulane, and maybe East Carolina to stay in that Carolina region? Either ECU or Temple. You've got a fun 10 team league that should be competitive, would be an upgrade for the AAC teams, and would be a decent landing spot for the schools left by the dissolution of the ACC.
Obviously, there's a ton of options that could be in play, depending on what the Big Ten ends up doing. They've been interested in North Carolina for a long while - former commissioner Jim Delany is a North Carolina alum. Could the Big Ten push to get Notre Dame and North Carolina together? Who knows.
The SEC already has South Carolina and Florida - what's the value of adding Clemson and Florida State? It would honestly make more sense for the SEC to add North Carolina and Virginia, and the Big Ten to add Clemson and Florida State... but it doesn't FEEL right.
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