Will SEC vote to keep 8 game conference schedule?

Is the SEC sticking with 8 games in the conference schedule after 2023? Or will they vote at the spring meetings in Destin to move to 9 games? And if so - what else will that entail?

Both SI’s Ross Dellenger and the Athletic’s Seth Emerson have reported on this in the past week, and the decision appears to be about as clear as mud right now.

Greg Sankey has stated for about a month now that the decision will likely be made at this month’s spring meetings in Destin, which will include Texas and Oklahoma in attendance for the first time.

Emerson detailed the decision that the 16 schools have to vote on: “For a year now, the conferencehas been down to two options (https://theathletic.com/4485339/2023/05/03/sec-football-schedule-format-choice/): a nine-game conference schedule where every team has three annual opponents and rotates the other 12 teams, or an eight-game schedule where everyone has one annual opponent. No more divisions. No pods.”

The 9 game conference schedule made sense because you get more annual conference rivalries every year. You can have Alabama vs Auburn AND Alabama vs Tennessee, Auburn vs Georgia, etc. Big ratings games each year. If you stay at 8 games, AL / TN and AU / UGA end up being played 2 times every 4 years.

But, for TV purposes, 9 conference games is the right decision. You get more of the bigger annual matchups, which get the better guaranteed ratings. If you want to keep your distribution partner happy, this is the way to do it.

Everyone assumed this thing was just going to move to 9 games, like the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 12.

But, as Emerson put in his article, when everyone met at last year’s spring meetings, they realized they didn’t have a consensus. From the article: “Schools such as Kentucky preferred eight-game schedules because they didn’t care about more than one annual rivalry (Louisville, and it’s non-con) and they liked eight-game schedules for competitive and financial reasons. (One fewer nonconference game means one fewer chance to schedule a very winnable home game.)”

All viable reasons… but when it comes to the greater good of the conference, you could just tell Kentucky to suck it up, buttercup, right?

Well… it’s not that easy. At that time, we weren’t sure if the CFP was expanding. The SEC wasn’t sure who was going to pay for canceling non-conference games that have already been scheduled out in the future. And… the biggest one… whether or not ESPN would even pay them more money for more games. The ESPN / SEC contract is for 8 conference games for each team.

That ESPN contract was worth $811M per year for 10 years… and it was signed prior to Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference. The pro rata clause in the contract is believed to increase the payment by an amount equal to what each school was already getting. So, $58M per school, which means $927M per year. But… the SEC and ESPN are still at the negotiating table, because - as the SEC has already pointed out to ESPN… this is not just 2 extra teams. This isn’t the Big Ten adding Rutgers and Maryland. This is Texas and Oklahoma. 2 of the premiere brands in the history of the sport. Which means more marquee matchups.

But ESPN hasn’t announced a new deal yet. Which means, right now, there’s no additional money for more games.

So now, if you’re a school that’s been planning to vote for 9 conference games, but now there’s no financial incentive to replace the extra home game you’re likely to lose every other year in a 4 home, 5 away conference schedule… do you switch your vote back to 8?

My belief is that something will get done… but not at the spring meetings… and ESPN & the SEC will agree on 9 games. But, as we’ve talked about in the Pac 12 negotiations, ESPN is a little dry on cash at the moment. They’re making cuts, not spending a ton of money, and there’s the CFP, NBA, and UFC deals coming up that they’ll have to spend on. So will they just say ‘nah, we’re good with what we’ve got?’

Who’s to say. But if ESPN says they’re not paying more, I think you’ll see 8 games. If ESPN says yes, we’ll see 9. But nothing will be agreed to until that point.

From the Friday, May 5th full show: https://youtu.be/k9gdzfRB0VE

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