Seante Race Already?

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Senate rankings: Here are the 5 seats most likely to flip
Midterms were only six months ago but the 2024 campaign season is already firing on all cylinders as races ramp ...

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice
The state has long been expected to be at the center of the fight for the Senate but that battle heated up last week when Gov. Jim Justice (R) announced his bid to replace Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), handing the GOP one of its top recruits on the 2024 map.
Justice immediately becomes the favorite for the GOP nod. Polling is showing him likely to prevail, and the National Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, backed by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), signaling their support
But he still faces a tough road against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), a pro-Trump conservative who showed his mettle last year by ousting Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) in a primary spawned by redistricting. The Club for Growth has also said they are prepared to drop $10 million to back Mooney.

Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.)
Announced earlier this year that he will seek a fourth term, giving the party a real chance in one of the two reddest states on the map.

For the GOP and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the two names that continue to pop up are businessman Tim Sheehy, a friend of Daines and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R) as they try to find someone (and anyone) who isn’t Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) to square off with Tester. Tester defeated Rosendale by 4.5 points in 2018.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)

GOP is trying to knock off as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) tries to nab a fourth term. Two top-tier candidates have jumped into the race to replace Brown — Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno, both of whom ran in 2022 — while two others — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Rep. Warren Davidson — are eyeing potential bids.

Arizona - Sen. Kyrsten Sinema
The Arizona Senate race is by far the most complicated contest on this list as questions surround the future of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who left the Democratic Party last year and has not said whether she’ll mount a reelection bid. If she does, she is the likely favorite to win the party nomination over Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who officially launched his bid earlier this month. But if she doesn’t, the door opens to a possible reprisal bid by Blake Masters, who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) in 2022, and Jim Lamon, who was defeated by Masters in the primary.

The GOP is holding out hope that Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Lake last summer, will run. One Arizona-based GOP operative said that she is “really considering” that possibility. “It’s a really big mess,” the first GOP operative said. “That field is far from set. … Among the races that should be getable, it’s going to be the toughest.”

Pennsylvania - Sen. Robert Casey
Of the five Democrats on this list, no one is in a better position to secure reelection than Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) as Republicans brace for a bruising primary battle between the establishment and hardcore right-wing factions of the party.

Ask almost any Republican in the Keystone State and they’ll say the GOP’s chances to defeat Casey are zilch if David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates who lost the state’s Senate primary to Mehmet Oz last year, isn’t the nominee.