THE END OF UKRAINE & RUSSIA WAR

The war in Ukraine could continue as a war of attrition for months or even years, with neither side able to conduct an operation with a decisive outcome, Stanford scholar Steven Pifer told Stanford News.

The Kremlin underestimated Ukrainian’s determination to resist, says Steven Pifer, an affiliate at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. (Image credit: Damian M. Marhefka)

Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and an affiliate at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, discussed how he anticipates the conflict will continue to unfold, and what it will take to bring it to an end. He also shared a glimpse of what life is like right now for Ukrainians, who remain fiercely determined to resist Russian occupation.

Pifer’s research focuses on nuclear arms control, Ukraine, Russia, and European security. He spent more than 25 years working with the U.S. State Department, where he focused on America’s relations with the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as arms control and security issues. He served as deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs with responsibilities for Russia and Ukraine (2001-2004), ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000), and special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia on the National Security Council (1996-1997).

Twelve months into the conflict, what do you find most troubling?

The war – or this latest phase in a conflict that began in 2014 with the Russian military’s illegal seizure of Crimea – has been a terrible tragedy for Ukraine and Ukrainians. Tens of thousands have died, including many civilians. The fighting has caused 13 million to flee their homes and become refugees outside of Ukraine or internally displaced within. The material damage to infrastructure, housing, and industry amounts to many hundreds of billions of dollars.

At the same time, the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin has proven a disaster for Russia. Western officials estimate the Russian military has suffered some 200,000 killed and wounded in action. While not as devastating as predicted, Western sanctions have nevertheless taken a toll on Russia’s economy. Europe has united in support of Ukraine, with Finland and Sweden abandoning decades of neutrality to seek to join NATO, and Berlin junking five decades of German policy toward the Soviet Union and Russia. The war will leave Russia diminished in military, economic, and geopolitical terms.