Ukraine: Demilitarisation Update March 23, 2023

West Surges Ammunition Ahead of Ukraine's All Or Nothing Offensive

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 23, 2023:
- Russian forces continue encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and now Avdeevka, two major points along Ukraine's defense line in the Donbass;

- Ukraine is gearing up for its upcoming offensive, carrying out drone strikes on Crimea and reconnaissance by force along the line of contact in Zaporozhye;

- the stated goal of Ukraine according to Western reports is to cut the land-bridge between Crimea and the rest of Russia, though that would hardly isolate Crimea entirely;

- Ukraine would suffer immense losses, just as they did during the Kharkov /Kherson offensives last year, with the addition of many more Russian troops and extensive defensive works created months in advance;

- The US and EU are surging remaining stockpiles of artillery ammunition to Ukraine ahead of the offensive to sustain 2-4 months of intense fighting. Once depleted it will take years for the West to restore these stockpiles;

- Russian shell production appears to have exceeded Western output as early as 2014-2015 and has continuously increased since meaning Russia's ability to regenerate combat power exceeds the West's at this moment;

- Ukraine's upcoming offensive should not be underestimated nor the prospects of a breakthrough, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated a preference for withdrawing over being encircled or suffering heavy casualties as part of its attrition strategy;

References:

Financial Times - Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month (March 4, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/75ee9701-aa93-4c5d-a1bc-7a51422280fd
Financial Times - Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine (March 20, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17
Reuters - EU seals plan to send a million artillery shells to Ukraine (March 20, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-agrees-plan-send-million-artillery-shells-ukraine-2023-03-20/
NYT - Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon. (November 25, 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-breakdown.html
Alexander Mercouris - Russia Big Gains Bakhmut, UK MoD Alarmed Avdeevka; West Stakes All Kiev Offensive; Xi Jinping Moscow (March 21, 2023):
https://youtu.be/oEGp5k4Nw1U
The Telegraph - Putin is running out of time to win the ammunition war against the West (March 9, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/09/putin-running-time-win-ammunition-war-against-west/
Novya Gazeta - Barren Barrels (November 2022):
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/02/the-barren-barrels-en#:~:text=Handmade%20tanks,200–250%20tanks%20a%20year.
Ukrainian Armed Forces - Russia resumed production of 152-mm shells (November 2022):
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-resumed-production-of-152-mm-shells/
Jamestown Foundation - Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part One) (December 2022):
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-struggles-to-maintain-munition-stocks-part-one/
Jamestown Foundation - Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part Two) (December 2022):
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-struggles-to-maintain-munition-stocks-part-two/
The Moscow Times - Russia Says Ramping Up Ammunition Production for Ukraine War (January 2023):
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/27/russia-says-ramping-up-ammunition-production-for-ukraine-war-a80061
Defense News - Army acquisition chief would welcome tank ramp-up if Congress funds it (May 2022):
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/05/18/army-acquisition-chief-would-welcome-tank-ramp-up-if-congress-funds-it/

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