RT News - February 4th 2023 (U.S. to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine)

Donbass: Deadly shelling. At least one person is killed and up to four are feared trapped under rubble after the latest round of Ukrainian shelling hits residential-only civilian areas of Donetsk. At least 11 apartment blocks have been hit, some people may still be under the rubble. Roman Kosarev reports. (also see "Analysis" and (1) below)
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Washington intends to send Kiev long range missiles which will allow Ukraine forces to strike further into Russian territory. (3 and 3a below)
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Murad Gazdiev is at the front lines and explains the use of Russia's "heavy flame thrower system" in battle (description of thermo-baric weapons - gruesome)
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POWs: 63 Russian service men have been returned as part of a prisoner exchange. The exchange was brokered by U.A.E.
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The Balloon over America: China says it has 'never intentionally violated any sovereign country's territory', as Washington accuses Beijing of spying on the US with a balloon that's floating across America. Sec of State Blinken cancelled a trip to China because of it. Caleb Maupin discusses.
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The G7 nations impose a new price cap on Russian oil to cut Moscow's revenue, while President Putin says the country will not export fuel to states supporting the restrictions. Chris Emms analyses and discusses.
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Africa, Nigeria: A teenage boy has been killed and election materials stolen. There's an election coming up and the electoral commission says it's worried about safety during the election processes. There are many issues including energy, as Africa's biggest oil producer, it still faces energy problems and increasing prices. Poloum David and Joe Nwakwue report.
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Pakistan: Peace protests continue in Peshawar, after a mosque was attacked last week (see previous posts). RT talks to some protesters.
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Below, via RT website A) --- Ukraine ‘will burn’ if it strikes Crimea, ex-Russian president warns

Show more

Analysis ) --- The logic behind the terror: Why does Ukraine keep attacking civilian areas in Donetsk?

1) --- Donetsk apartment block hit by Ukrainian artillery – mayor
2) --- US must get over its ‘impunity syndrome’ – Moscow
3) --- Pentagon will allow Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at will
3a) --- Kiev is set to receive American Patriot missile batteries. How will this change the battlefield in Ukraine?
4) --- France comments on Ukraine’s NATO prospects
5) --- Russia wants ‘revenge’ – Zelensky
6) --- Russia responds to calls for international tribunal
7) --- Zelensky behind Macron’s calls to Putin – Paris

8) --- Türkiye gives timeline for Russian-proposed gas hub
9) --- Germany considers diverting ‘green’ subsidies to arms production – Bloomberg
10) --- Dozens of Russian soldiers return from Ukrainian captivity – Moscow

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4 Feb, 2023 15:57

A) --- Ukraine ‘will burn’ if it strikes Crimea, ex-Russian president warns

Moscow could retaliate “in any way possible” should Kiev decide to attack Crimea, Dmitry Medvedev has said

Washington’s decision to supply Ukraine with longer-range missiles and allow Kiev to use them at will can only lead to further escalation, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Saturday. He added that the US appears to not want the Ukraine conflict to end.

In an interview with Russian journalist Nadana Fridrikhson, Medvedev denied that Ukrainian strikes against the Crimean peninsula would force Moscow to sit down at the negotiating table. “The result would be exactly the contrary. There would be no talks in such a case. There would only be retaliatory strikes,” he warned .

Medvedev insisted that if Washington wanted peace in Ukraine, it could simply urge Kiev to engage in talks with Moscow, but that US President Joe Biden’s administration and “hawks” in Congress are “simply not interested in it.”

Russia could “retaliate in any way possible” should Ukrainian forces strike targets in Crimea or deep inside Russian territory, the former president warned. “We do not set any limits depending on the nature of threats, and are ready to use all types of weapons,” he insisted, adding that Russia would only be guided by its own doctrines, including the nuclear protocol.

“I can assure you a response would be swift, hard and convincing.”

Medvedev also accused European leaders, who have been supporting Kiev through various means, including weapon shipments, of acting at the behest of Washington and to the detriment of their own people. The cost of sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, trade wars, and embargoes are borne by ordinary EU citizens, he added.

Medvedev’s remarks came a day after the Pentagon announced it was supplying Kiev with ground-launched small diameter bombs (GLSDB) – munitions consisting of a rocket motor and an airplane bomb, with a range of up to 150 kilometers.

According to US Brigadier General Patrick Ryder, Washington will not prevent Ukraine from using these munitions to strike targets deep within Russia.

Moscow has repeatedly warned that providing heavy weapons to Ukraine could see the US and its allies directly involved in the conflict, and spiral into a military standoff between Russia and NATO.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570962-ukraine-strike-crimea-burn-medvedev/
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4 Feb, 2023 13:13

Analysis ) --- The logic behind the terror: Why does Ukraine keep attacking civilian areas in Donetsk?

Rockets have hit peaceful neighborhoods once again. Why does Kiev continue its policy, if not purely out of hate?

By Vladislav Ugolny, a Russian journalist based in Donetsk

At least ten rockets hit central areas of Donetsk on Saturday morning, damaging three residential buildings, a local Russian official has reported in his Telegram channel.

One of the projectiles fired by Ukrainian forces hit an apartment building in the Kievsky district. While rescuers continue to search for survivors under the rubble, preliminary information suggests that there were three people in one of the apartments.

There was no information on casualties at the time of writing, but the absence of victims would be unusual; indeed, Ukrainian shelling of the capital of the Donetsk People's Republic intensified weeks before the Russian attack in February 2022, and has taken a heavy toll ever since.

The suffering of Donbass residents
According to the human rights commissioner of the DPR, Daria Morozova, at least 1,091 civilians were killed and another 3,533 were recorded as injured last year as a result of combat operations. The figures do not include places such as Mariupol, where the full scale of the tragedy has yet to be assessed.

The 4,624 people mentioned above were victims of regular artillery strikes on urban areas of Donetsk and Gorlovka.

When Donetsk residents are asked why the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to attack civilians, people usually have no explanation other than the desire of the Ukrainian government and military to destroy Donbass and its people. This is supported by a massive campaign to dehumanize local residents and a number of hateful statements by Ukrainian politicians. “We will kill them with nuclear weapons,” warned former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, while ex-president Pyotr Poroshenko has vowed: “Our children will go to school, while their children will go sit in basements. That’s how we will win this war.”

Ukrainian forces continue to bomb Donbass despite the shortage of shells experienced by both sides of the conflict. However, while Russia can solve this issue by activating its military-industrial complex, Ukraine is entirely dependent on foreign supplies.

It should make a lot more sense for Ukraine to use scarce ammunition on military targets rather than on peaceful residential areas. Even if a lot of the time, Kiev's forces misfire. A typical example is a Ukrainian shell landing in the frozen Kalmius River that divides Donetsk.

How Ukraine explains the attacks
---
Whenever Ukrainian artillery hits a civilian object – for example, a flower market – or kills civilians, officials in Kiev deny it. Unofficial voices resort to false claims that no such thing ever happened. Over the past eight years, the latter have come up with several memes allegedly proving that the Ukrainian Army wasn’t involved – with explanations such as “the air conditioner exploded.” Even if Ukrainian forces manage to hit a military facility, such as a warehouse, they usually deny involvement, claiming that “someone smoked in the wrong place” and that the explosion wasn’t related to the conflict. Thus, an information environment is created that denies the fact that Kiev attacks cities.

The Ukrainian side claims the attacks on civilians are “self-inflicted” – implying that the Russian Army attacks cities under its control, supposedly to blame Ukrainian forces and demonize them in the eyes of the population, as well as for propaganda purposes. This kind of post-truth has given rise to a whole area of fact-checking, where journalists collaborate with open-source intelligence to calculate the trajectory of the strikes.

For Donbass residents, all this is extremely painful. Discussions of terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure often end in profanities. According to Donbass locals, Ukrainians keep on attacking Donetsk simply because they can. Meanwhile, people are just trying to survive and are waiting for the front to move away from the area. Other details don’t concern them.

However, this is a distorted view of the situation; there is every reason to believe that the regular shelling of cities in Donbass is part of Ukrainian strategy and follows military logic. Perhaps Kiev’s “hybrid war” era military doctrine has adopted terrorist methods. So, how do these attacks on the civilian population help Ukraine?

Psychological pressure
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Let’s take a clear example. In June 2022, the units of the first corps of the People’s Militia of the DPR were dislodged from their permanent locations because of the battle for Lisichansk – they had to storm a huge section of the front from Popasnaya to Verkhnekamenka, moving from south to north. The Russian Armed Forces then lacked personnel and had to use troops from Donetsk. Ukraine intensified strikes on the city to force the leadership to return the units back to their locations.

A similar thing is happening now. Some areas are under pressure – in particular, the fighters of the Wagner Group are pressing in Soledar and Artyomovsk (known in Ukraine as Bakhmut). They are advancing backed by the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces. Ukrainians use civilian strikes to provoke politicians, hoping that they will influence the military and interfere with the army’s plans. In June, this plan failed and the Ukrainians, taking advantage of the lack of counter-battery fire in the Donetsk region, committed a number of atrocities.

Commenting on the situation in a private conversation, one fighter explained why the army didn't take the bait: “Normally, no military man – from simple soldier to general – suffers if the enemy attacks the city. This sounds harsh, but it’s better for the enemy to attack the city than the army’s manpower. This would be the usual military logic, but there is one key detail: 95% of our corps are made up of local residents who are worried about their cities. So, after completing the mission in Lisichansk, our soldiers were very angry when they got back to Donetsk.”

This is all very close to home for fighters from Donbass. In the case of a fast-paced conflict without a stable front line, such attacks would have motivated the soldiers, by enraging them. Perhaps this explains the near-complete silence of the Ukrainian artillery in the first month of the Russian military campaign. In those days, when the front line was mobile, it was better not to further motivate the enemy.

However, in positional warfare, fighters are conscious of a permanent threat to their relatives and other civilians in their hometowns. Motivated warriors who identify themselves as “defenders” feel as if they don’t have enough strength to break through. This acts to discourage. Concern for those who are not on the front line returns the soldier to his other life, behind the front lines, and distracts him from battle. By itself, this does not break morale, but soldiers are also affected by constant adrenaline swings, a risk of death or injury to themselves or their brothers in arms, the cold and damp conditions, the monotony of their work (for example, a good soldier digs more often than shoots), and numerous other factors.

Russia doesn’t have a strong memory of World War I – it has been replaced by that of World War II. However, the current fighting resembles the trench warfare of the early 20th century. With the possibility to adjust and fine-tune firing using Chinese drones and the chance to search the internet for how to repair military equipment. The rest of it – mud, trenches, the frozen front line – is like World War I, including politicians demanding a large-scale and ambitious offensive.

Why can’t the strikes be stopped?
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At the end of July 2022, such an event began in the Donetsk region. Its main goal was to free the city from artillery strikes. The Donetsk corps were successful for several days, but then became stuck in positional battles. By the end of January, six months into the operation, the army had barely advanced 10km (6 miles).

The fighters were unable to break through the pre-established line of defense, and the forces only managed to wedge and slowly push through the three lines of fortifications near the villages of Vodianoye and Opitnoe, north of Donetsk airport. However, the fighters cannot give up on storming these fortifications – the strikes on Donetsk and Makeyevka must end for good.

As a result, there have been signs of an emerging contradiction. On the one hand, military leaders who are interested in achieving military goals and saving manpower, and on the other, politicians who express the interests of the civilian population and want to put a swift end to the artillery terror. Politicians want the public to like them. They don’t want to deal with the consequences of hostilities, hoping for things to return to normal so they can receive funding to restore the affected regions. As a result, they view the situation quite differently from the military.

Through manipulation, propaganda and informational and psychological influence, Ukrainians have made cunning use of the differences between civilian and military interests. This comes down to a grotesque choice between “killing the army in Avdeevka” and “allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to wipe Donetsk off the face of the Earth.” If politicians push the army to force the assault, the latter will make more mistakes, which will reduce their power. This, in turn, favors Kiev.

Perhaps seeking rational reasons behind the artillery strikes in Donbass is pointless – maybe it’s just the manifestation of rage on behalf of Ukrainian nationalists. However, if we ask ourselves “who benefits from this,” there is a creeping suspicion that terrorizing the population with NATO ammunition is a strategy initiated by Ukraine’s top military leadership. Firstly, these attacks tie up the forces of the Russian Army and distract it from concentrating on other areas. Secondly, they negatively affect the combat spirit of the fighters from Donbass. And finally, they allow political factors to intervene in military strategy, dealing a serious blow to its quality.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570954-logic-behind-ukrainian-terrorism/
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Article from the Washington Post which I had kept from when I had the magazine, parts may be behind pay-wall :

By Adam Taylor
from March 25, 2014 Washington Post (fair use)

In latest wiretapping leak, Yulia Tymoshenko appears to say ‘nuclear weapons’ should be used to kill Russians

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/03/25/in-latest-wiretapping-leak-yulia-tymoshenko-appears-to-say-nuclear-weapons-should-be-used-to-kill-russians/

On Monday night, a leaked recording purporting to be of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko appeared on the video sharing Web site YouTube.

According to the Moscow Times, the recording, apparently made March 8, details a conversation between Tymoshenko and Nestor Shufrych from Ukraine's National Security Council, and has Tymoshenko suggesting that Ukrainians should kill Russians, and, in particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin. The recording, which may have been altered, also apparently features Tymoshenko suggesting that the 8 million Russians living in Ukraine should be killed with "nuclear weapons."

The video containing the recording was initially uploaded to a YouTube account under the name Sergiy Vechirko, and has since been widely shared on pro-Kremlin media outlets, with Russia Today producing its own version with translation: https://youtu.be/6RxSzSWbcxo

While the Moscow Times reports that Shufrych has denied the recording is real, a tweet from Tymoshenko appears to suggest she believes at least part of it is: https://twitter.com/YuliaTymoshenko/status/448100004407029761
It says "There was a conversation, but about 8 million Russians in Ukraine - montage. In fact, she said: Russians in Ukraine are Ukrainians. Hello FSB :) Sorry for the obscenity "

In the above tweet, Tymoshenko says that the recording has been edited, and that she in fact said that the Russians in Ukraine "were Ukrainian." She also added "Hello FSB :)" in reference to Russia's security agency. Tymoshenko, widely considered a potential candidate for the Ukrainian presidential election in May, does not have a reputation for being anti-Russia, which has struck some as strange, and had enjoyed a working relationship with Putin in the past.

The incident is the latest in a series of leaks that appear to show officials involved in Ukraine have been targeted by wiretaps. In February, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland was recorded saying “F--- the E.U." in a in a private conversation with the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, that was apparently recorded and uploaded to YouTube. Another leaked phone call between Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton appeared to show Paet raise the possibility that snipers who shot dead protesters in Kiev could have been working under orders from Maidan opposition leaders.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-purported-recording-of-us-diplomat-blunt-talk-on-ukraine/2014/02/06/518240a4-8f4b-11e3-84e1-27626c5ef5fb_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_13
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/05/world/europe/ukraine-leaked-audio-recording/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/05/us-estonia-eu-ukraine-idUSBREA2423O20140305
While all these calls appear genuine, there are suggestions that they have been presented to appear more controversial than they should: Estonia later released a statement that said: "We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence."
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4 Feb, 2023 13:12

1) --- Donetsk apartment block hit by Ukrainian artillery – mayor

The city was bombarded by NATO-caliber rounds, Aleksey Kulemzin said

An apartment block in the Donbass city of Donetsk was shelled with NATO-caliber munitions by Ukrainian forces on Saturday, Mayor Aleksey Kulemzin said.

Kulemzin posted photos of a four-story building, which he said had sustained a direct hit. The official said one person believed to have been in the location at the time of the strike was unaccounted for. Regional emergency officials, meanwhile, said two people may still be trapped under the rubble.

According to the mayor, 155mm-caliber rounds were fired at the city. Kulemzin said projectiles landed on several streets, damaging at least one other residential building. He later added that a 30-year-old woman had been wounded.

Russian officials have repeatedly accused Ukraine of using Western-supplied weapons to indiscriminately fire on cities in Donbass. Late last month, the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine had destroyed a hospital in the city of Novoaydar in the Lugansk People’s Republic with a US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launcher. According to officials, 14 people were killed and 24 wounded in an attack on the facility, which had been treating both military personnel and civilians.
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/13325

Kiev has also accused Russian troops of targeting civilians. On Wednesday night, three people were killed and 20 injured after a missile hit a house in the Ukrainian-held Donbass city of Kramatorsk, according to Kiev-appointed regional official, Pavel Kirilenko. Moscow, meanwhile, has maintained that its forces only strike military targets and sites that are being used for military purposes.

Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine nearly a year ago, citing the need to protect the people of Donbass and Kiev’s failure to implement the 2014-15 Minsk peace accords. Ukraine has said the attack was entirely unprovoked.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570957-donetsk-shelling-nato-caliber/
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4 Feb, 2023 07:49

2) --- US must get over its ‘impunity syndrome’ – Moscow

Washington has lost its ability to use force on the global stage without facing serious pushback, a senior diplomat said

Washington shouldn't expect the world to forget that it fabricated its justification for the 2003 Iraq invasion, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told RIA Novosti on Saturday.

The Russian diplomat made the remark on the eve of the 20th anniversary of the now-infamous speech by then-US Secretary of State Colin Powell at the United Nations Security Council, during which he presented alleged evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, including biological ones.

To support his case, Powell exhibited a tiny vial of white powder, which was supposed to represent anthrax, and told the council that the US had no other choice but to go to war. However, no weapons of mass destruction were ever found in Iraq.

Powell’s UN stunt “has long become the epitome of hypocrisy and the conviction of the US ruling elite in its own impunity and its unchallenged right to arrogantly teach the rest of the world,” Ryabkov stated. He added that it was also emblematic of Washington’s willingness to “use force against an obviously weaker opponent in order to preserve its own global hegemony.”

However, the diplomat suggested that – unlike in the 2000s and during the 1999 NATO bombing campaign of Yugoslavia – Washington could not get away with “international banditry” under current conditions.

“In the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, the US is now objectively unable to resort to a use-of-force scenario every time it feels like it, without facing serious consequences,” he noted, pointing to the “humiliating flight” of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021.

However, as Washington’s “meddling” in the Ukraine conflict has shown, this setback has not stopped the US from embracing its old ways, the diplomat continued.

“The Americans will have to adjust to the new rails and get rid of the impunity syndrome that so clearly manifested itself during the [anthrax] vial scandal. The same applies to taking into account Russia and China, as well as other major international players that are shaping a more just multilateral world order,” Ryabkov said.

The US should not cherish any hope that “the memories of what happened 20 years ago would be buried in the shifting sands of modern history,” he concluded.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570943-us-iraq-war-impunity/
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3 Feb, 2023 23:37

3) --- Pentagon will allow Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at will

Munitions with 150-kilometer range are part of the newest weapons gift package

It is up to the government in Kiev to decide how to use new rockets being delivered for the US-supplied HIMARS launchers, the Pentagon said on Friday. The statement is a confirmation that the latest batch of munitions the American taxpayers are funding will include Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB).

The Boeing-manufactured munitions consist of a rocket motor mated with an airplane bomb, with an estimated range of up to 150 kilometers. While Friday’s announcement listed “additional ammunition” for the HIMARS and “precision-guided rockets,” Brigadier-General Patrick Ryder told reporters that this indeed included the GLSDB, confirming the information leaked to Reuters earlier this week.

Ryder also confirmed that the US won’t stand in the way of Ukrainians using the missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

“When it comes to Ukrainian plans on operations, clearly that is their decision. They are in the lead for those,” he said on Friday. “So, I'm not going to talk about or speculate about potential future operations, but again, all along, we've been working with them to provide them with capabilities that will enable them to be effective on the battlefield.”

The GLDSB are produced by Boeing in cooperation with Sweden's Saab AB, and combine the GBU-39 small-diameter bomb with the M26 rocket motor. It was unclear how many of the munitions the Pentagon intended to send, or whether they would come from the US military stockpile or need to be freshly produced.

Reuters claimed to have seen a Boeing document saying the first deliveries could be “as early as spring 2023.” Meanwhile, Bloomberg cited unnamed officials who said the timeline could be as long as nine months, depending on when the US Air Force issues the contract. Bloomberg also reported the GLSDB order would account for $200 million of the $1.75 billion in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding, referring to contracts for weapons and ammunition not coming out of the Pentagon stockpile.

Whenever the missiles actually arrive, Russia has already hinted at how it will respond. On Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin tasked the military with “eliminating any possibility” of Ukrainian artillery strikes on Russian territory. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview on Thursday that Moscow will “push back” the Ukrainian troops to a range at which they will not be a threat.

“The longer range the weapons supplied to the Kiev regime have, the further the troops will need to be moved,” Lavrov said.

Ukraine has used the US-supplied HIMARS launchers against both military targets and civilians in Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye. Kiev has repeatedly asked for the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets, which have a range of some 300 kilometers.

Moscow has repeatedly warned Washington that providing heavy weapons to Ukraine risks crossing Russia’s “red lines” and involving the US and NATO in the conflict directly. The US and its allies insist they are not parties to the hostilities, but continue to arm Kiev. By the Pentagon’s own admission, the US has committed $32 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
https://www.rt.com/news/570935-pentagon-ukraine-glsdb-missiles/
==============RELATED (previously posted)

from post on 17 Jan, 2023 21:05

3a) --- Kiev is set to receive American Patriot missile batteries. How will this change the battlefield in Ukraine?

The complex systems will become a high-priority target for Russia, as the West ups the ante on supplies

This month, the Ukrainian military is set to start training to use the US-built Patriot missile system. Laura Cooper, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, has said the process will take “several months.” This means that the technology may soon take a full part in combat operations between Moscow and Kiev. But will the high value equipment tip the balance of power on the battlefield?

A short wait
Discussions around the supply of Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems to Kiev intensified after major strikes on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine by the Russian Armed Forces and subsequent blackouts. An incident in the Polish city of Przewodow, when a missile from a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system resulted in the death of two farmers, also played a part in the discussions. The chairman of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, suggested that Germany should send its Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine, not Poland.

At the time, Berlin noted that it would prefer the missile defense systems to remain on NATO territory. Yet in less than two months, things changed. At the beginning of January, the United States and Germany agreed to send a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery to Ukraine. The announcement was made in a joint statement by U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after their first phone conversation in 2023. The training will be conducted both Washington and Berlin. The transfer of the battery is scheduled for the first quarter of the year.

This will be Kiev’s second Patriot battery. As was announced at the end of December 2022, the first will be handed over to Ukraine by the US. It was included in the latest military aid package, totaling $1.8 billion.

Experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies note that, so far, the Patriot has been the most expensive weapons system provided to Ukraine by the US. They estimate that the total cost of one Patriot system can reach a billion dollars: $400 million for the equipment and $690 million for the missiles.

Ukraine will become the nineteenth country in the world that uses or plans to use this kit. The first Patriot systems were deployed by the US Army back in the 1980s. They were first used in combat during the Gulf War in 1991, and then during the illegal Anglo-American invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Patriot system has undergone significant changes since then: its latest modification includes more accurate and high-performance radars and advanced surface-to-air interceptor missiles – PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability).

It is still unclear which version of the Patriot system Ukraine will receive. But we’re probably talking about the PAC-3.

When is the Patriot system coming to Ukraine?

In wartime conditions, training Ukrainian Armed Forces specialists to use the Patriot system isn’t likely to take a long time. Moreover, Ukraine has much expertise in using the S-300 surface-to-air missile system – one that structurally resembles Patriot.

The procedure for acquiring new missile technology is virtually the same in the Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops of Russia and Ukraine. First, the army personnel are retrained at a specially equipped center. Then the weapons, military equipment, spare parts, and tools are accepted by the anti-aircraft missile batteries (or divisions).

The next stage comprises of the first live firing of anti-aircraft guided missiles (under the current circumstances, this will possibly be carried out from places of permanent deployment under the supervision of U.S. instructors). Then, the anti-aircraft missile system is folded, prepared for transport, and sent to a loading station, such as an airfield or port.

At the final point, divisions and units that have received the new equipment travel to the place of deployment and upcoming combat operations by air, sea, rail, or on foot.

Considering the time needed for preparation, we can expect the Patriot systems in Ukraine to be ready for combat in March.

What will happen after the Patriot is transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

The Patriot missile system (especially PAC-3) is, without any exaggeration, a state-of-the-art product of the US military industrial complex. Presumably, if the White House decided to send such advanced missile defense weapons to Ukraine, the issue of supplying Kiev with Western-type battle tanks like the German Leopard 2 won’t take long to resolve.

Along with the second Patriot battery, Berlin will also send 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, as reported by German Federal Government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit. This is another big step towards equipping the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Western weapons.

It’s worth noting that after receiving Patriot missile systems and heavy armored vehicles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be just a step away from getting F-15 and F-16 fighter jets.

The Patriot batteries are invaluable for Kiev. These systems have, as military specialists say, the potential for non-strategic missile defense. This capability will be particularly useful for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It’s an effective means of combating manned aviation, sea-based and air-based cruise missiles, tactical ballistic missiles, and operational-tactical ballistic missiles.

Most probably, the systems will be deployed to shield the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and to defend this decision-making center from the attacks of various types of cruise missiles. However, it will take dozens of Patriot batteries to cover all the administrative and political centers of Ukraine, including regional cities and key energy facilities. And Ukraine is unlikely to receive that many MIM-104 Patriot systems in the foreseeable future.

The Patriot’s “Achilles' heel”

Presently, the key concern is the number of anti-aircraft guided missiles that will be supplied along with the Patriot system, since the number of missiles used during the repulse of massive air attacks by the Russian Armed Forces exceeded all expectations. If Ukraine does not receive enough missiles, its two Patriot batteries will simply stand idle.

The Patriot missile defense system also has its weak spots or rather, its particular features. For example, the Patriot AN/MPQ-53 multifunctional radar has rather low search capabilities. This feature is native not only to the Patriot system, but also to the target illumination and missile guidance radar and the multifunctional radar of the Russian S-300/400 missile defense system.

In Russian systems, this shortcoming is compensated for by providing the S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile divisions with either 5N66M-type low-altitude detectors, or 96L6E-type high-altitude detectors. Moreover, anti-aircraft missile divisions receive searchless target designation from system command posts equipped with a detection radar (RLO 64N6, S-300) or a radar complex (RLK 91N6E, S-400).

As a result, if it’s deployed near Kiev, the Patriot missile battery will have to be provided with additional search and targeting capabilities. Obtaining data from the Boeing E-3 Sentry, an option mentioned by some experts, is not particularly useful since it means that a certain number of E-3 aircraft will have to relocate to Ukrainian airfields.

It is unlikely that the US and its allies will agree to this. But in some way, the Ukrainian military will have to solve the system’s issues. And that may really be a problem.

How will Russia fight the “Patriots?”

The capture of a Patriot air defense system is a highly unlikely scenario. The system is not a front-line weapon. It will probably be placed in the rear of the Ukrainian Army, covering Kiev or Right-bank Ukraine. It would require an offensive operation to capture the Patriot system, and even so, success is far from guaranteed. Not a single M142 HIMARS combat vehicle has yet fallen into Russian hands. Meanwhile, a detailed examination of the system is only possible following its capture and disassembly.

The Patriot air defense systems delivered to Ukraine will become a high-priority target for the Russian Armed Forces, but the task is hardly simple. The Patriot is a highly mobile system (it takes no more than 25 minutes to deploy/fold). This means the system does not remain in the same position for long. After several missile launches, it can relocate. And finding the Patriot won’t be easy.

After February 24, the Armed Forces of Ukraine kept several divisions of the S-300PT air defense system in service. The “PT” abbreviation means that it’s a container-type system (by the way, the weight of some containers, such as F9, exceeds 16 tons). It takes several hours to fold /deploy this modification of the S-300. Yet despite its low mobility, the container-type system is still used in the Ukrainian army. Surely, a highly mobile anti-aircraft missile system has a much higher chance of survival.

As for the Patriot missile defense system, Russian troops may use anti-radar missiles of the X-31P type, guided air-to-surface missiles such as X-29T, X-38Mxx, X-59MK, etc., and free-fall bombs (OFAB-250-270 and FAB-500-type) to target and destroy it. One way or another, it will be up to the Russian army to solve
https://www.rt.com/news/569797-kiev-will-receive-two-patriot/
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Feb, 2023 15:24

4) --- France comments on Ukraine’s NATO prospects

Kiev’s membership in the US-led military bloc is not on the table for now, the French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said

Ukraine’s accession to NATO is not being discussed right now, given the ongoing hostilities between Moscow and Kiev, the French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said on Saturday.

Speaking to the Russian RTVI Channel, Anne-Claire Legendre was asked about Ukraine’s bids to join the European Union and the US-led military alliance. She described the EU’s decision to grant Ukraine candidate status in June 2022 as “very important,” sending a signal of “serious political support” for Kiev’s course and reflecting Ukrainians’ desire to embrace European values.

However, she refrained naming exact dates for Kiev to become part of the EU, saying Brussels is formulating a roadmap which could take “more or less time.” The spokeswoman noted that EU members are seeking to “move towards a very specific cooperation with our Ukrainian friends.”

The spokeswoman’s comments came after the European Commission determined on Thursday that Ukraine was only at an “early stage” of readiness to meet EU standards in many key areas. The bloc’s top executive body notably highlighted Kiev’s shortcomings in labor and gender equality legislation.

Legendre also signaled that Ukraine should not expect to join NATO in the near future, cautioning that accession is “is not on the agenda now. There is a war going on now.” However, she stressed that the alliance still adheres to its open-door policy, citing the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which stipulate that every state is free to choose its own allies.

Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO has long been a key security concern for Russia, and was cited as one of the factors prompting Moscow to launch its military operation in February 2022.

In December 2021, before large-scale hostilities broke out, Moscow submitted draft documents on security guarantees to NATO and the US, demanding that Ukraine be barred from entering the alliance, and insisting that the bloc itself should retreat to the borders of 1997. The initiative, however, was rebuffed.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570959-france-ukraine-nato-eu-accession/
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3 Feb, 2023 19:12

5) --- Russia wants ‘revenge’ – Zelensky

Kiev will go on the offensive if the West delivers more weapons soon, the president said

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has claimed that Russia wants “revenge” and is preparing for a major offensive in late February or early spring. Speaking after a meeting with visiting EU officials on Friday, Zelensky said Kiev was already preparing for the blow.

“We think there will be increased pressure in the east,” said the Ukrainian leader. “Russia wants revenge in the exact place where it previously failed. It wants to take the east,” he added, referring to areas east of Kharkov where Ukrainian troops advanced in the fall.

“Our mission is to prevent that and hold them off until our army is equipped with adequate weapons. I think we have every chance of that,” Zelensky asserted. The US and its allies have promised main battle tanks to Kiev, such as the American M1 Abrams, the British Challenger, and the German Leopard 2, but said that delivering them would take weeks or months.

Ukrainians need to remember the “motivation and spirit” from the start of the conflict, Zelensky added, noting that some parts of the country feel like they’re “on vacation” instead of at war.

Asked about the embattled city of Artyomovsk (called Bakhmut by Ukraine), Zelensky insisted that the Ukrainian military does not intend to withdraw.

“Nobody will surrender Bakhmut,” he said, adding that if Ukraine’s Western partners speed up deliveries of long-range weapons, Kiev will instead launch an operation to “liberate the territories occupied since 2014.”

A key Donbass crossroads, Artyomovsk has seen heavy fighting for months and is close to becoming encircled by advancing Russian troops. The Wagner Group private military company has been at the forefront of Russian efforts in the area.

Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin sent a message to Zelensky on Friday, urging him to keep fighting in Bakhmut to the last.

“Dear Vladimir Alexandrovich, many people are asking you to withdraw troops from Bakhmut. Do not do that,” Prigozhin wrote. “Artyomovsk is the main event of this war. We must keep fighting. You will show cowardice. You will no longer be respected. The Ukrainian people will not forgive you for surrendering Artyomovsk to a private military structure. Resist. Fight to the end.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/570930-zelensky-ukraine-revenge-offensive/
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3 Feb, 2023 12:34

6) --- Russia responds to calls for international tribunal

The initiative by the Organization of American States chief serves his own personal agenda, Moscow says

Russia’s Embassy in Washington has suggested that the Organization of American States (OAS) should find a new leader, after Secretary General Luis Almagro voiced support for an international tribunal on Moscow’s military action in Ukraine.

“With such comments, the international official is clearly seeking the support of his masters from Washington in the context of the OAS internal investigation in his regard,” the embassy wrote on its official Telegram channel on Friday.

On Thursday, Almagro posted a series of pictures on Twitter of him meeting with Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andrey Kostin and Ambassador Oksana Markarova. He accompanied the post by expressing his support for the creation of a “Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.”

Almagro, 59, has headed the OAS since 2015, but is currently facing an internal investigation for allegedly violating the organization’s code of ethics by having a relationship with a staffer two decades his junior. Under OAS rules, employees are forbidden from having intimate relationships with co-workers that may interfere with their duties or disadvantage other colleagues. Any managers who enter such relations must back out of roles that could benefit the other individual.

The embassy pointed out that Almagro had never made any attempt to “condemn the crimes of the nationalist ‘Maidan’ authorities” or criticize their “incessant shellings of Donetsk and other cities of Donbass” which claimed the lives of civilians.
The Russian diplomatic mission accused the secretary general of bringing a potential conflict into his region with a “proactive Russophobic position” and trying to push his personal opinion as that of the entire OAS, which includes most governments of North and South America and the Caribbean.

The OAS was initially founded in 1948 and intended to bolster solidarity and cooperation among member states. However, under Almagro’s leadership, the organization, headquartered in Washington, DC, has faced accusations of serving North American interests at the expense of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The Russian embassy urged Almagro to instead focus on issues that are more important to his bloc, such as migration, the post-COVID economic recovery, and the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570909-russia-oas-chief-tribunal/
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4 Feb, 2023 15:13

7) --- Zelensky behind Macron’s calls to Putin – Paris

Despite ruling out talks with Moscow, the Ukrainian leader reportedly uses his French counterpart as a go-between

French President Emmanuel Macron’s phone calls with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, mainly took place “at the request of President Zelensky” of Ukraine, a spokeswoman for the French Foreign Ministry stated on Saturday. Zelensky has publicly declared that he will never speak to Putin in person, and has made peace talks with the Russian leader illegal.

“Mr. Macron calls President Putin mainly at the request of President [Vladimir] Zelensky, and always in coordination with our allies to maintain a channel for dialogue,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre said during an interview with RTVI.

Kiev has never admitted that Zelensky presses his Western backers into speaking to Putin, and the Ukrainian leader himself signed a decree in October forbidding negotiations with Moscow unless “another president of Russia” replaces the current Kremlin occupant. With negotiations officially off the table, Zelensky has repeatedly vowed to use force to seize Russian territory that is claimed by Ukraine, including Crimea.

Among Western leaders, Macron is one of a small minority who maintain contact with Putin. Both he and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have held regular phone calls with the Russian leader since Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine began almost a year ago.

Legendre said that at some point “Ukrainians will decide that the time has come for negotiations. That is why we consider it useful to maintain this channel of dialogue.”

Macron and Scholz have been condemned by their Eastern European allies for holding discussions with Putin. “Why talk to him? He’s a war criminal,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas declared last summer. “I feel that if everybody is constantly calling him, he doesn’t get the message that he’s isolated.”

Although Macron has defended his conversations with Putin, and has spoken publicly of the need to reach a ceasefire deal that doesn’t “humiliate Russia,” he has still supplied Kiev’s military with progressively heavier weapons. France announced last month that it would send infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, and Macron last week refused to rule out the eventual transfer of fighter jets.

Western nations that supply weapons to Ukraine have made themselves de facto participants in the conflict, Moscow has repeatedly stated.
https://www.rt.com/news/570961-macron-calls-putin-zelensky/
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4 Feb, 2023 13:04

8) --- Türkiye gives timeline for Russian-proposed gas hub

The major gas project is expected to handle supplies previously directed through the Nord Steam 1 pipeline

A major natural gas hub in Türkiye, proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and backed by his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is expected to start operating as soon as this year, according Ankara’s energy minister.

Fatih Donmez also said the issue had been discussed with several nations, which expressed their readiness to support the Turkish gas hub project, adding that ensuring energy security remained a priority for Türkiye.

“A common opinion has been formed on doubling supplies via TANAP (Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project),” the minister said, according to Anadolu news agency, adding that the work was ongoing.

He predicted an increase in gas production over the next few years, contributing to energy security for both Türkiye and Europe.

In January, Donmez said work on the gas hub had begun, and that the country's interest in the project could grow over time.

In October, the Russian head of state proposed the Türkiye-based project, saying Moscow could redirect gas transit from the two Nord Stream pipelines, which were damaged by explosions classified by Kremlin as an act of terrorism. Ankara embraced the plan, saying it would link Russia and Türkiye through Europe.

The hub’s TurkStream pipeline starts on the Russian coast, runs over 930 kilometres under the Black Sea, and comes ashore in the Turkish region of Eastern Thrace. It directly connects the largest gas reserves in Russia to the Turkish gas transportation network, providing reliable energy to Turkey, and southern Europe.
https://www.rt.com/business/570952-turkiye-russian-gas-hub-timeline/
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4 Feb, 2023 10:07

9) --- Germany considers diverting ‘green’ subsidies to arms production – Bloomberg

The move would allow more weapons and ammunition to be manufactured for the Ukraine conflict

Germany may use funds intended for the phasing out of coal-fired power plants to help defense companies build additional production facilities, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the report, the measure is being discussed between the government in Berlin and regional authorities in Germany’s individual states. The move would allow manufacturers to make more weapons and ammunition, as well as create jobs in the areas worst affected by the shift from coal.

It comes as Western countries are ramping up military aid to Kiev. Germany pledged last month to deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks and Marder armored vehicles to Ukraine.

Berlin also allowed companies this week to transfer the older Leopard 1 tanks.

However, according to multiple reports, the efforts to assist Kiev and ensure that the Bundeswehr remains combat-ready have been impeded by munitions and equipment shortages. Business Insider cited defense industry and parliamentary sources in October as saying that the army had enough ammunition for only one or two days of warfare.

The continuing energy crisis prompted Germany to relaunch several reserve coal-fired plants last year. The government has also extended the operation of existing plants up to the end of March 2024. The decisions came as Berlin was looking for ways to conserve energy during winter.

In June, the German Economy Ministry said that, despite concerns over energy supplies stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany would stay committed to phasing out coal as a power source by 2030.
https://www.rt.com/news/570951-germany-green-subsidies-ammunition/
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4 Feb, 2023 10:02

10) --- Dozens of Russian soldiers return from Ukrainian captivity – Moscow

The release of 63 POWs was possible partly thanks to mediation efforts from the UAE, the Defense Ministry said

More than 60 Russian servicemen have been freed from Ukrainian captivity, it was announced on Saturday. The Russian Defense Ministry said the swap deal included “persons of a sensitive category” who were released following mediation efforts by the United Arab Emirates.

According to the ministry, 63 service members of the Russian Armed Forces have returned from Kiev-controlled territories “as a result of a complex negotiation process.”

All the freed service members are now in Russia and are being provided with “all necessary physiological and medical assistance,” officials stated. The former captives have also had the opportunity to contact their families.

The Defense Ministry released a video of what appeared to be POWs boarding buses in Russia’s Belgorod Region, which borders Ukraine.
https://t.me/mod_russia/23950

Later on Saturday, Andrey Yermak, the chief of staff to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, stated on Telegram that Kiev had secured the release of 116 people. He said 87 of them were Ukrainian Army service members, including two special forces troops. The rest belonged to territorial defense forces, the National Guard, police, the State Border Guard, the Navy, and the State Emergency Service.

According to the official, Kiev also retrieved the bodies of two foreign volunteers, as well as one Ukrainian soldier who served with the French Foreign Legion.

Since the start of the conflict last February, Russia and Ukraine have negotiated numerous POW swaps, with the agreements often being brokered by third parties, most notably Türkiye and Saudi Arabia.

In mid-January, Türkiye’s chief ombudsman for human rights, Seref Malkoc, said that Kiev and Moscow had compiled a list for a potential prisoner exchange involving around 1,000 people. However, Russian human rights commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova indicated at the time that no agreement had been reached.

The previous prisoner swap took place in early January, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying it had secured the return of 50 service members who had been facing “deadly danger” while in captivity.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570950-russia-ukraine-prisoner-swap/
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