Lessons from China

Deaths in China

Abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on 7th December

Only people who died of respiratory failure were counted

Jiao Yahui, Bureau of Medical Administration

Between 8 December and 12 January, 59,938 Covid hospital deaths

Deaths from respiratory failure, 5,500

Rest also had underlying health conditions

Average age of death, 80

90.1% aged 65 +

Lunar new year holiday, travel has started (21 January)
Daily number going to fever clinics

Peaked at 2.9 million on 23rd December

Last Thursday, 477,000 visits

Professor Ma Jingjing, Peking University

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-s-cumulative-COVID-cases-hit-900m-over-60-of-population-estimate

Infections, 900 million (64% of population)

Major cities, infection rates, 70% to 90%

Infection rates up to 91% in some provinces

Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Stopped publishing infections last week

Infection fatality rate

900 million infections, 59,938 deaths

One death per 15,015 infections

IFR = 0.006

More pessimistic estimates of 1 million deaths (1.4 billion)

One death per 1,400 infections

IFR = 0.0714

WHO welcomes data on COVID-19 in China, meeting with Minister

https://www.who.int/news/item/14-01-2023-who-welcomes-data-on-covid-19-in-china--meeting-with-minister

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Minister Ma Xiaowei, China’s National Health Commission

The overall epidemiology—reflecting a rapid and intense wave of disease caused by known sub-variants of Omicron

Omicron sublineages BA.5.2 and BF.7 (BA.5.2.1.7)

Arriving soon

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128554/variant-technical-briefing-49-11-january-2023.pdf

XBB.1.5.

CH.1.1

with higher clinical impact on older people and those with underlying conditions,

is similar to waves of infection experienced by other countries

Will China will become endemic?

UK, Zoe prevalence is 1 in 26

England, ONS prevalence is 1 in 25