Analysis, covid vacines and road accidents

COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash

https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext

Background

Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,

is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.

So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents

People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents

Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults

Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records

Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care

Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals

One month follow-up

Results, (2021)

N = 11,270,763

Total traffic accidents, 6,682

Unvaccinated, 16%

Vaccinated, 84%

Unvaccinated individuals

1,682 traffic crashes (25%)

Equal to a 72% increased relative

Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82%

(P < 0.001)

What about

Socioeconomic status

Alcohol

Sleep apnea

Diabetes

Depression

Dementia

Hypertension

Cancer

Covid infection

Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment

Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57%

(P < 0.001)

The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity

Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines

Conclusions

These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash.

An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.

But
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s

Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465

Also
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf

Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021

‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates

(several pile ups in ice and bad weather)

Over 65s do not commute

So
Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident

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Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69)

Total = 6,682

Drivers, 2,856
Passengers, 1,189
Pedestrians, 2,637
(Table 3 of the study)

(Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians)

People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination

Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time.

So how many casualties were misclassified?

If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified,

Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov)

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes

Deaths at Scene

Excluded

42 deaths at scene

8 deaths were included

(550 people were actually admitted to hospital)

Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored

This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident

What about people not in the system

Dr Clare Craig
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481

Unvaccinated typically underestimated

Therefore

Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated

Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated

E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents

Or indeed, anything else

Forest plot

In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias)

Source data not available to public

The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).