Russians Digging in for Winter - Crisis Report

Following the withdrawal of its forces from west of the Dnipro River, Russian forces continue to prioritize refitting, reorganization and the preparation of defenses across most sectors in Ukraine.

Units have constructed new trench systems near the border of Crimea, as well as near the Siversky-Donets River between Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Some of these locations are up to 60km behind the current front line, suggesting that Russian planners are making preparations in case of further major Ukrainian breakthroughs. It is likely that Russia will attempt to eventually redeployed some of the forces recovered from Kherson to reinforce and expand its offensive operations near the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

With the abandonment of Kherson city, Russia has made the Azov Sea port town of Henichesk a ‘temporary capital’ of the occupied region. Russia will likely also redeploy military command units to the Henichesk area. The choice of this area as a command node hints at the priorities and concerns of Russian commanders as they consolidate their defenses in southern Ukraine. It is well positioned to coordinate action against potential Ukrainian threats from both Kherson city in the west, or via Melitopol to the north-east, and to receive reinforcements from Crimea.