Poland explosion to trigger NATO consultations NOT Article 5 says Analyst

A reported blast in NATO member Poland could spark increased support and military aid for Ukraine, an analyst told Reuters on Tuesday (November 15), as the United States and Western Allies investigate a report that the blast resulted from stray Russian missiles.

Two people were killed in an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland about 6 kilometers (3-1/2 miles) from the border with Ukraine, firefighters said. Media reports said the strike hit a grain-drying facility. Russia's defense ministry denied responsibility.

Russia was pounding cities across Ukraine with missiles on Tuesday, in attacks that Kyiv said were the heaviest wave of missile strikes in nearly nine months of war. Some hit Lviv, which is less than 80 km (50 miles) from the border with Poland.

Max Bergmann, who heads the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Europe program, noted that if the source of the explosion is confirmed to have come from outside Poland such as from a missile, Russia could bear responsibility due to its instigation of the conflict.

“Russia is firing cruise missiles into Ukrainian territory. And if Ukrainian air defense did go askew as the Russians are alleging… at the very least it is Russia [who is] responsible because they're the ones attacking a foreign country and firing missiles at a sovereign state,” he said.

Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are committed to collective defense under Article 5, so a Russian strike that hit Poland could risk widening the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began with Moscow's invasion in February.

A NATO official said the alliance was looking into the report and was closely coordinating with Poland.

Poland was increasing the readiness of some military units and determining whether to request consultations with allies under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, spokesman Piotr Muller said. Polish President Andrzej Duda and U.S. President Joe Biden were speaking, officials said.

Article 4, by which a NATO members who feel under threat can request consultation on possible action by the NATO Alliance, could clearly be invoked, CSIS’s Bergmann said.