Covid, September 2019 in Italy confirmed

Milan Institute for Tumour Diseases, Coronavirus antibodies, September, 2019

Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy (October 2021)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33176598/

Full text version

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8529295/

Screening and Multiple Intervention on Lung Epidemics (SMILE
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03654105

There are no robust data, coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread, prepandemic period worldwide

We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific antibodies

Blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals,

enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial,

between September 2019 and March 2020

Plasma samples repository

Results

SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in,

111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals

All the patients were asymptomatic at the time of blood sample collection.

Actual timeframe

First positive test, 3rd September

September 2019 23/162 (14.2%)

October 2019 27/166 (16.3%)

Second week of February 2020, (>30%)

By the end of September,

Lombardy, Veneto, Piedmont, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, Lazio, Campania, Friuli.

Official timeframe

End of December 2019, coronavirus 2 identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

January 30th 2020 Italy’s first two cases,

(two tourists from China tested positive in Rome)

February 20, 2020 Lombardy, 38-year-old man, no history of travel

Authors

This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals

Several months before the first patient was identified

Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.

Phenomena 1

Underestimation of prevalence

Swabs and serology, focused on symptomatic cases

Therefore, an underestimation of overall COVID-19 infections

(Selection bias)

Therefore overestimation of mortality rate

May 25 and July 15 (2020)

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study, n = 64,660

Prevalence rate was 2.5%

Approximately 1.5 million, (many of whom were asymptomatic)

Estimate almost 5 times higher than official reports

Phenomena 2

Onset of the epidemic, likely to have preceded identification of the first case

November–December 2019

Doctors reporting, severe respiratory symptoms in elderly and frail,

with atypical bilateral bronchitis,

which was attributed to aggressive forms of seasonal influenza

Based on these findings, a prior unnoticed circulation of the virus among the Italian population could be hypothesized.

October 2019 to February 2020

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/

Molecular analysis, PCR, 40 wastewater samples Milan/Lombardy, Turin/Piedmont, and Bologna/Emilia Romagna)

Presence of viral RNA,

December 18th in Milan and Turin

So, in which direction did the virus travel?

7th Military World Games

第七届世界军人运动会

Commonly known as Wuhan 2019

October 18–27, 2019

Around 230,000 volunteers

9,308 athletes from 109 countries competing in 329 events