Will Xi Jinping Destroy China?

Will Xí Jìnpíng destroy China? For those of you who are impatient, the short answer, “Probably”. Now, I’m not claiming to be a China expert, but I do have in-laws who live in China, and I did live there myself about 15 years ago. Back then, Hú Jǐntāo was in charge. By the end of his leadership in 2012, China’s economy was booming as it integrated more closely with the rest of the world. Hu was associated with collective leadership, comparative openness, double-digit economic growth, while balancing the influence of multiple party factions. However, he retired in 2013 earning him praise from President Xi for “his broad mind and noble character”.

But fast forward almost 10 years to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. Hu Jintao was happily sitting next to Xi Jinping and had attended the earlier closed-door session on the last day of the Congress, and then international cameras were allowed in for the final portion of the day. Just after the cameras had been set up, Hu was approached by one of Xi’s bodyguards on Xi’s request. The bodyguard tried to lift Hu out of his chair, but he resisted for almost a minute attempting to return to his seat. But eventually he gave in and said something to Xi on the way out. The most interesting thing, I thought, was that Hu passed literally dozens of the most senior members of the party, none of which acknowledged him. They just sat there stony-faced staring forward as he was escorted out. Later footage shows an empty chair next to Xi Jinping.

However, none of this was broadcast on local media. Any attempts to search for it were blocked. Even search results for vague keywords such as “escorted away” or “leaving the meeting” were blocked. The only image that was broadcast on the state-owned CCTV was Hu’s empty chair barely visible in this wide-angle shot. You would certainly have to have had eagle eyes to have noticed it. It is well known that the Communist Party’s mass meetings are highly scripted events. Everything is planned in advance. This leads to speculation that the timing of Hu’s departure was probably not an accident. That said, it’s highly unusual for the party to air its dirty laundry in public. If this was a deliberate show, it would certainly be a departure from usual behaviour. Its intent was not to show the local Chinese people, but instead to show the foreign media that not only is Xi in charge, he can physically remove previous leaders.

Now that Xi is in charge for a historic third term, he’s certainly one of the most powerful people in the world. However, in order to reach this position of power, he’s surrounded himself with fervent loyalists. Yes, this means he can maintain his hold on power, however, it also means that he’s inadvertently created a dangerous echo chamber. Máo Zédōng ruled China from 1949 until 1976, but his leadership was marked by rash policy decisions that led to the deaths of tens of millions of people and destroyed the Chinese economy. People were afraid to question Mao under fear of severe punishment. Hence why the Communist Party developed a system of collective leadership designed to prevent the rise of another dictator who could make arbitrary and dangerous decisions. There was an unwritten rule that the Communist Party’s General Secretary must step down after two terms. But Xi had other ideas.

Unfortunately, inside his newly formed echo chamber, Xi has set himself up as the next Mao. He has purged political enemies, silenced internal dissent, abolished presidential term limits and enshrined “Xi Jinping Thought” into the party’s constitution. Throughout history, many dictators have fallen into this same pattern of surrounding themselves with loyalists and yes-men who will never question or criticise them. Unfortunately, it always results in the same thing — an abuse of power and poor decision-making. The dictators poor decisions go left unchecked. Xi has turned his policy advice circles into echo chambers, so people are no longer able to speak their mind freely. We are seeing big mistakes being made in China simply because their internal policy debate has been reduced or even eliminated.

Exhibit A – Zero-COVID. Despite the rest of the world learning to live with the virus, China has clung to this harsh policy, which relies on mass testing, extensive quarantines and snap lockdowns to stamp out infections at all costs. Sure, not many people are dying from COVID, but that certainly doesn’t mean that people aren’t dying from the results of this inhumane policy.

MUSIC
Melancholia by Godmode