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Presentation of The Shahed-136 / Geran-2 Attack UAV by Slavyangrad

LOITERING MUNITIONS
Thanks to all who watched and enjoyed our Shahed-136 / Geran-2 presentation video (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16121) yesterday.

Questions appeared in comments about Geran-2 loitering functionality. This follow up is to expand on the subject and clarify what we know.

TLDR Quick Summary
We don't know if Geran-2 has loitering capability and it probably doesn't. Islamic Republic Shahed-136 drones may have loitering capability using a radiation seeker, however this has not been publicly demonstrated. My working hypothesis is Geran-2 doesn't have loitering capability. Why? Because we have seen Russian use of camera-guided UAVs for the loitering mission, in videos reported to be "Lancet" UAVs (which I allege are actually Iranian Samad-3 modified with Russian Lancet optics, HERE (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/14711) and also HERE (https://t.me/Slavyangrad/15262)).

DETAIL
Loitering munitions are attack UAVs which fly to a target area, then remain in a holding pattern until a target is identified. Once identified, the UAV attacks the target. The advantage of this is the ability to attack non-static targets such as vehicles, even while in motion. Several targeting methods are used by loitering munitions:

1) Laser target designation. A laser is pointed at a target by ground spotters, or by a second, remotely piloted observer UAV such as the Russian Orlan-10. The attack UAV would need to have a device called a laser spot tracker, to lock onto and attack the target. In theory, the drone could do this autonomously or by remote command. While this may seem very complicated, laser target designation and tracking is a mature technology. For example, Russia uses Orlan-10 UAVs as laser target designators for the 152mm Krasnopol laser-guided artillery shell. Similar guidance of laser-tracking attack UAVs is a logical progression. There is one downside to laser tracking UAVs and that is high cost.

2) Camera guidance. The UAV sends a live camera feed to the ground station. It flies to the target area, then the pilot uses the UAV's camera to seek out targets. Once a target is identified and "locked", the UAV attacks it. The UAV's terminal dive may be manually piloted, or may be autonomous once the target is locked. This is also mature technology - even consumer-grade camera drones can be set to follow, circle or zoom into a target specified by the user. Camera guidance is used by the several recent "Lancet" UAV attack videos we have seen.

3) Sensor guidance. This method may use an IR-sensor to "lock on" to heat signatures (for example the exhaust of a tank) or a radiation seeker which homes in on electro-magnetic radiation from field radios or radar systems. Radiation seekers are versatile because they can be set to detect very specific frequencies. An autonomous UAV with a radiation seeker could loiter above a target area, waiting until a nearby air defence system activates its radar. As soon as the specific frequency and signal strength of the radar is identified, the UAV would lock on and attack the target autonomously.

The Islamic Republic claims Shahed-136 is capable of sensor guidance, using a radiation seeker as an optional feature. However, this capability is yet to be demonstrated in Shahed-136 or any other Iranian UAV. A radiation seeker and the upgrades required to the UAV's flight computer and control unit for autonomous maneuver and AI decision-making would add tens of thousands of dollars to the UAV unit price.

CONCLUSION
It is unlikely Geran-2 has a loitering function. To Russian forces it is a simple, cheap cruise missile which can be launched in swarms. Geran-2 flies a programmed path to fixed coordinates using inexpensive GLONASS and inertial guidance, then does a terminal dive to hit the target with its 50kg warhead. Despite its lack of "brains", Geran-2 has proven to be a devastating addition to Russia's arsenal. As Pro-Western Russian military commentator Viktor Suvorov put it, "A stupid weapon which works, is not a stupid weapon".

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