23 Oct- Russian Primary DEFENSE IS COLLAPSING - War in Ukraine Explained

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Day 242: October 23

Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region are notably increasing the intensity of their attacks. Interestingly, over the last two days, more and more reports have started to suggest that the Russian primary defense line has softened and that the Ukrainians have improved their tactical positions in multiple places along the northern front line.

Last time I told you that the most intense fights had taken place on the Piatykhatky-Kachkarivka line. The main targets here became Sukhanove and defensive positions on the way to Mylove. The Ukrainians had also been assaulting Piatykhatky, although not as intensely. However, over the last several days, the trend has changed, and now the Ukrainians seem to be sending bigger groups to assault Russian positions in this region. Russian sources report that Ukrainians started to engage more machinery here and that the attacks are no longer light. So, the reconnaissance activity along the northern front has slowly grown into fully-fledged combat. On certain days, the Ukrainians had even launched several attacks per day in the same direction. This was when the reports started appearing, suggesting that the Russians no longer held their defense tightly. On 20 October, the Russian Ministry of Defense indirectly confirmed that the Ukrainians managed to penetrate Russian defenses around Sukhanove. The Russians also started saying that the Ukrainians were assaulting Russian positions in the area of Piatykhatky instead of inside Piatykhatky, implying the front line had moved. Later, by reporting a Russian attack on Piatykhatky, they indirectly confirmed that they lost control over this settlement.

Simultaneously, the Ukrainians continued to relocate more and more troops and defense systems closer to the front, which strongly indicates that the Ukrainians are preparing to push the front line very far. Apart from regular reinforcements with troops, the Ukrainians have notably reinforced the Dudchany area with surface-to-air missile systems. The Dudchany area has become the main target of Russian air forces, which did not allow the Ukrainians to concentrate a lot of equipment here. As you can see, there is a big road that goes from Dudchany south, which means that in the case of a rapid advance, this will be the most efficient way to supply the attack group.

Last time I also told you that the Ukrainians were not very active in the Davydiv Brid area, and this trend has also started to change. Russian sources began to report that the Ukrainians are engaging a lot of drones in the region and that their attacks are launched not only from Davydiv Brid but also from Velyka Oleksandrivka, which indicates that the Ukrainians have spread their reserves relatively evenly and can support an extensive and rapid attack.

After conducting intense aerial reconnaissance, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces had completely abandoned their positions in Charivne and Chkalove. Ukrainian General Staff also reported that the Russians are shelling Ukrainian positions in Mala Seydemynukha, which suggests that the Ukrainians have again entered this previously grey zone area. These are the bigger settlements in the area, and the ones around them are very small. This strongly suggests that the Russians are mainly focused on evacuating their machinery and trying to make sure that the Ukrainians will not capture as much equipment as last time. This also indicates that Russian positions here are weak, but we will see for sure when the Ukrainians launch their combat reconnaissance because, right now, they are mainly assaulting the settlements around Bruskynske.

Overall, we can observe that while the northern area switched from reconnaissance to active combat, the central area switched from being dormant to reconnaissance. Extrapolating from the past, we can expect the Ukrainians to launch a full-scale attack in the next seven days, and the fact that the Russians are already losing control over the prefrontal settlements suggests that the Ukrainians have a very high chance to penetrate the area very deeply.

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