Vladimir chickens out just when the real deeds are supposed to happen.

The real reason is always the same: Vladimir chickens out just when the real deeds are supposed to happen. JUST QUIT PLAYING A CARING BIG BROTHER OF UKRAINE FINALLY!

TG / Slavyangrad:
"Despite the Ukrainian authorities' claims that up to 30% of all power plants were damaged, there is no talk of any noticeable slump in electricity generation or consumption. According to Ukrenergo, electricity generation on "peaceful" Tuesday, October 5 (12.07 gigawatts) exceeds that on the 18th (11.13 gigawatts) by just 9%. Despite periodic rolling blackouts, Ukrainians have kept the grid relatively stable so far.

The problem is not the inefficiency of the strikes, but the huge spare capacity that Ukraine has. Due to the almost complete shutdown of industry and electricity exports to the EU, less than 50% of Ukraine's power generation capacity is now in use. First and foremost, I am talking about TPPs and CHPPs, which now operate at just a fraction of their maximum capacity.

Does this mean that it is impossible to paralyze the Ukrainian energy system with the means available to the RF Armed Forces? NO!

More than 50% of the generation (~6 GW) is now done by nuclear power plants (Rivne, Khmelnitsky, and Southern Ukraine). Despite the huge capacity of TPPs, Ukraine does not have sufficient fuel reserves for them.

Of course, suggesting that the MoD should be like the Ukrainians and start shelling nuclear power plants is foolish. But there is another solution: to attack the outdoor switchgear of the substations to which the NPPs are connected, namely their transformers.

First of all, we are talking about 750kV substations - if all transformers at these substations are destroyed, the flow of power from the NPPs to the Ukrainian energy system will stop. What would it mean for Ukrainian power engineers?

Firstly, the Ukrainian NPP would repeat the fate of ZNPP and would be shut down because of its inability to "recycle" the electricity it produces. Restarting a nuclear power plant is a labor-intensive and long process. With cold weather looming, a sudden shutdown of all NPPs could have catastrophic consequences.

Second, although we mentioned earlier that Ukraine has a huge reserve of TPPs and cogeneration plants, it will not be possible to just use them to generate electricity. The problem is a shortage of fuel, especially coal. Fuel supplies from the West look unrealistic, given the gravest energy crisis in the EU. Even if the Europeans can allocate some resources to Ukraine, the question of logistics remains. Again, no one prevents the Russian Armed Forces from continuing strikes on other targets.

It is important to note that since the beginning of massive strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure on October 10 and up until the 17th, no strikes on 750 kV substations have been recorded. This may have been due to the MOE's inherent humanism, but on the 17th several such substations were hit at once: Severo-Ukrainskaya, Dniprovskaya, and Vinnitskaya. The damage to transformers at these substations immediately caused rolling blackouts in Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk.

Time will tell if such strikes are a one-off action or just the first swallows of a change in the MoD's approach to the destruction of Ukraine's strategic infrastructure.

The coordinates of all 750kV substations are available, and all of them are within the range of our weaponry. The only question is whether a decision will be made to destroy them or not.

It will not be easy to achieve the deterioration of the Ukrainian energy system by shelling only the rank-and-file CHPs. As always, a methodical approach to the task always yields great results.

By Redovka
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