Russian Armed Forces strikes on Ukraine’s energy system on October 19, 2022 @Rybar analysis

Russian Armed Forces strikes on Ukraine’s energy system on October 19, 2022 — @Rybar analysis

Rybar's team continues daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire destruction of Ukrainian energy system facilities.

🔻Verified Hits:

▪️Burshtynska TPP - autotransformers hit. Located in Ivano-Frankovsk, the thermal power plant feeds western Ukraine, as well as Transcarpathia and the Carpathians. Depending on the severity of the damage, the entire southwest of the country could face significant power shortages.

▪️Ladyzhynska TPP - the object was hit by three missiles, the exact amount of damage is unknown. Together with the cascade on the Dnieper, TPPs feed the entire south-west of the country, and the complete decommissioning of the facility will lead to an increase in the load on the network and a shortage of electricity in the region.

🔻About power outages

The Ukrainian authorities announced on October 20 a rolling blackout in all regions, which will last from 7:00 to 23:00. People were urged to reduce their electricity consumption as much as possible. Street lighting will also be limited.

According to the Deputy Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Tymoshenko, if you do not reduce energy consumption, you will have to switch to temporary power outages. First of all, enterprises should reduce electricity consumption.

The Ukrainian energy system is experiencing a shortage of both generating and transmission capacities. Autotransformers at substations and thermal power plants were hit by blows. And the hydroelectric power stations, apparently, have been transferred to the maximum generation of electricity, but there is nothing to compensate for the morning and evening peaks of consumption.

🔻So far, it is impossible to confirm the degree of damage to the power system in 30-40%, as they say in Kiev. However, the damage has already been done very serious, although not enough for a complete collapse.

Strikes on the 750 kV and 330 kV outdoor switchgear of the remaining three nuclear power plants can quickly cause critical damage to the power system. But at the same time they will have strong political costs.

Continued strikes on substations and thermal power plants will achieve the same effect. At the same time, they will require more time and more missiles.