Hot CPI Inflation And The ETH Merge

𝐆𝐄𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐂𝐎𝐈𝐍 𝐂𝐎𝐔𝐑𝐒𝐄➜➜➜
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In this video, I discuss the CPI inflation number coming in higher than expected, as well as the Ethereum Merge-- and what both mean for Bitcoin's short-term price action.

With the CPI coming in hot, two-year yields charged higher, while the 2s10s spread inverted more deeply. Risk assets sold off sharply yesterday.

The 2s10s yield curve inversion shows that the Fed is already too tight vs. the economy, and close to the end of its hiking cycle. In spite of this, there is already a 100% probability of a Fed hike of 75 bps or more at the September meeting being priced in.

I still believe that the bottom is in for stocks and Bitcoin. Government economic data is notoriously noisy and volatile-- especially inflation data. Fed has already hiked us into a recession, and that has been priced into the market with risk assets down and 2s10s inverted. Economic numbers will continue to worsen from this point on and CPI inflation will continue to come down YoY.

If something goes catastrophically wrong with the ETH Merge (which is unlikely), Bitcoin could certainly tank tonight, but I think it is a low probability and that a recovery will be rapid.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

CPI comes in hot:
https://twitter.com/BChappatta/status/1569665217180622850
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

CPI by category:
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1569666775872327680

Future Fed funds probabilities:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

US Treasury yield curve:
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202209

CPI historical chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#001

ETH merge countdown clock:
https://www.ethernodes.org/merge

YTD crypto returns:
https://coinmarketcap.com/

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#inflation
#bitcoin
#ethereum

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