Richard Goldberg: Near East W/O The Islamic Republic of Iran, New Paradigms w/Sargis Sangari EP #117

On Monday, 26 SEP 22, on the 117th EPISODE of New Paradigms with Sargis Sangari, I welcomed back #RichardGoldberg, senior advisor at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (#FDD) and the Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction (#WMD) for the White House National Security Council (#NSC) from 2019-2020 for a discussion on the diminishing effects of U.S. Relations with #Iran & #NearEast future without the #IslamicRepublic of Iran.

According to Richard Goldberg, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (#JPCOA) agreement is a deeply flawed policy that provides #Iran with everything it wants yet provides #America with nothing it needs to reduce the threat of #nuclearwar and #nuclearweapons #proliferation.

During our discussion, Richard noted the JCPOA is flawed in its narrow scope. It limits the monitoring and sanctions required to prevent true #nonproliferation of nuclear weapons and also handcuffs the United States in its ability to use non-military leverage in #sanctioning Iran for #terrorist and #humanrights #violations.

2015 agreement contains many #sunsetprovisions, which allow Iran to continue #developing, #researching, and sanctions workarounds that they have constantly exploited.

Under the profoundly flawed agreement by 2031, Iran can produce #weapons-grade #uranium in any amount.

From 2016-2020 the U.S. sought to correct this flawed program by exerting maximum pressure upon the #Iranianregime and its international #Allies.

However, in 2020 America once again returned to the flawed 2015 agreement. Worse, the current administration has failed to enforce sanctions for the violations of the remaining weak regulations, agreeing to limit the U.S. and not Iran. The current administration has even halted the 2018 #Geneva #Investigations, blinding the world to the reality of Iran's nuclear weapons development and limiting #policymakers' and #observers' ability to construct a realistic framework of nonproliferation.

Since 2020 Iran has been working at warp speed to accelerate its nuclear weapons program, facilitated by the current U.S. policy. Iran is now more vital than ever and is better positioned to face off and extract concessions from future adjustments.

How does the Shanghai Cooperation Organization #SCO affect the U.S.'s ability to impose meaningful sanctions or programs to limit nuclear proliferation, especially with Iran?

Richard notes that Iran can not be understood without going to the "30,000-foot view" and understanding its role in the SCO framework. "we are in a new Cold War," ...and it is essential to understand the factions in this new #ColdWar and how they are aligned against us.

The #Moscow #Beijing #Tehran triangle in the SCO axis is the crucial power base against the U.S. This SCO axis coordinates responses against the U.S. and #international foreign policy not only by Iran but #Russia and #China as well as the myriad of their puppet states like #NorthKorea.

Russian #oil is sold through Iran and China, #Chinese #investment and #technology are transferred to Iran, etc.

A focus on the SCO as a whole is required if the U.S. is to stand a chance at winning this new Cold War.

We also discussed India's shits to the SCO.

India noted the American disaster in the retreat from #Afghanistan and has shifted to the SCO, seeing China and Russia as protectors, perhaps more than partners.

India's Prime Minister #NarendraModi administration has gone against the spirit if not the letter of the #QuadAgreements with the United States, #Japan, and #Australia and begun cooperating with the Chinese expansionist goals. The Iran port of #Chabahar continuation and acceleration and India's territorial concessions to the Chinese Communist Party (#CCP) are two recent indicators of India's shift. Moreover, #military participants were sent to SCO military #wargames, and time will tell if more participation in the SCO military maneuvers in the future will indicate if India has moved into the #adversary column. A striking reversal from the allies only two years ago.

About the #uprisings in Iran, Richard noted that it's up to the people of Iran to see what form of government they choose in the future. Whether it be a #constitutional #monarchy or other forms of government, it will significantly affect the U.S. depending on the closeness of that government to the SCO.