Survey/Odds/Polls: Mike Pence Won VP Debate ("Look a fly!" - MSM)

Hi, I’m Anthony Galli and as I wrote previously the true “winner” of a debate is whichever side sees a bump in their poll numbers after the debate. Since it’s too early to tell what the polls will say we are therefore left with political analysis.

I accurately predicted Joe Biden had won the first debate so which side do I think will see a bump from this debate?

First, let me use pollster Frank Luntz as my guide because I believe his live focus group with undecided voters is our best yet imperfect guide for gauging the views of undecideds. Here is how his focus group ranked each of the candidate’s performance in one word…

Frank Luntz concluded based on the overall response from his focus group…

Now before I continue, because this is often lost in our “just vote” culture, no, you shouldn’t vote based on personality. You should vote based on policy. This isn’t a pageant contest, but a job interview to decide who should run the most complicated and powerful political institution in human history. If you don’t want to take the time to learn what that job entails or learn basic facts about our government such as, what the 3 branches of government are, or cut through the political theater to understand what the pros and cons of each of the candidate’s policy positions are then, no, you shouldn’t vote because by doing so you are directly responsible for dumbing down our civic discourse and retarding our public institutions. Get informed and then vote!

Returning to reality, though, changes in poll numbers are often decided by persuading undecideds so based on that fact Mike Pence won. I wouldn’t say Vice President Pence, “wiped the floor with Harris,” but I do believe polls will move a bit in swing states like Michigan and Florida. Betting odds have already moved slightly in the Trump/Pence direction.

Mike Pence did what he needed to do whereby some of his “negatives” such as coming across to undecideds as “robotic, bland, typical politician” is arguably a net asset to counteract Trump’s unorthodoxy. For traditional evangelical conservatives or Bush Republicans sitting on the fence in Michigan and Florida, Mike Pence spoke their language and gave them a reason to hold their nose and vote Trump/Pence because if you could make your stereotypical 1980s Republican politician in a lab it would be Mike Pence. You can also tell Pence won by the fact that the headlines aren't saying "first black female VP nominee successfully prosecuted the case against white nationalism." Republicans also benefit more from “bland and boring” debates where the most commented aspect of the debate is something trivial like a fly in the room because this isn’t the sort of content that inspires high voter turnout, which traditionally benefits Democrats.

Finally, some say this debate doesn’t matter, but each debate matters at least a little on the outcome of the race because of the massive media attention it receives, but a little may not matter much if there is a landslide victory, or it could matter a lot if death comes early for either of the oldest presidential candidates in American history. Let’s hope everyone survives, but in 2020 nothing is a surprise.