Intelligence Analysis Finland: Colonel, PhD Kari on Russia, Ukraine, Finland & NATO 2022-03-09 #003

The former Finnish intelligence colonel, PhD, university teacher and researcher Martti J. Kari's first update on current views on March 9th, 2022 on Russian war on Ukraine and Finland's position in the current security environment, using strategic culture theory.

Kari is affiliated with University of Jyväskylä, Finland. https://twitter.com/maraj60

Further, see his popular (1.6M) lecture: https://inro.ml/kari

0:00 Introduction, personal background
0:39 Did you really think Russia was attacking Ukraine?
1:37 Why is Russia attacking Ukraine with massive force?
3:01 The Kremlin's neurotic sense of insecurity
4:03 The principle of continuous war in Russia
5:14 Is there media playing in Russia's bag in Finland?
6:46 Why are authoritarian leaders in power in Russia?
9:48 The strong resilience of the Russians - how will sanctions be lifted?
10:54 Why is Russia using a Nazi card?
12:00 How do Russians react to reality? The interface between truth and falsehood
13:08 What does Russia want from Ukraine? What kind of peace terms could Russia agree to? How long will Ukraine continue to fight?
14:22 Why has the Russian invasion war in Ukraine gone so badly?
15:42 Why is Russia deploying more troops in Ukraine and the domestic political situation in Russia?
16:58 Can Russia disconnect from the Internet? What is it about? Is the country planning a cyber attack on the West?
19:52 What is the impact of Kremlin media propaganda on the nation's mental landscape? What could the Western worlds do about it?
20:58 How does Russia view its northwestern neighbors? How do Russians react to Finland? What is Finland's position in relation to
22:40 Is joining NATO a solution to Finland's security policy situation? The teachings and military career of the 1980 YYA cadet school in relation to NATO.
24:08 How would Russia react militarily and politically if Finland decided to join NATO? How would the NATO accession process proceed?
25:58 How likely is it that Russia could attack Finland if we do not join NATO? What is the solution to ensure Finland's security?
26:52 What is the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin like? What kind of landscape does he have? From what point of view does he work?
28:37 How does Putin's inner circle (oligarchs, workshop) react to the current situation in Russia? Who are they loyal to when luxury has to be given up?
30:34 How would the use of a nuclear weapon work in practice? Is it possible in theory?
32:32 Is Russia planning a strong cyber attack? What could be the consequences of the attack? Does Russia have the potential to carry out such a blow?
33:19 How likely is it that the palace revolution will take place against Putin?
34:37 ​​How strongly is the Kremlin leadership behind the attack on Ukraine? Is Russia going to declare the rebel territories independent, or will it join them?
36:27 How will Putin be stopped? What do Western countries need to do?
37:12 What are the future scenarios in the war in Ukraine? Four different possibilities. Can the war escalate with NATO?

CHECK OUT THE HIT LECTURE: https://
SOURCES

AlfaTV / Sanna Ukkola Live: https://www.permanto.fi/fi/web/alfatv/player/vod?assetId=159682500

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21vXembyXY8

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Gez9BPy-tmjAEoZkHUfAJxmFzvz_Qxnn_s6AhUnMv4k/edit

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQRTKvoLAEM