Russia's Advance from Popasna - Battle of Donbas

Russia captured Popasna and has used it to launch assaults in Donbas.

Hello everyone, a little video here on the current Russian offensive in Donbas, as I think it is important and interesting to piece together what is happening as there is a lot of information out there. Especially around Popasna—so I am going to take a look at the assault from Popasna—a key area of the conflict.

A key moment was here—in May 7. Russian forces finally captured Popasna after weeks of fighting. Popasna is a town of just under 20,000 people. This becomes an important town as the Russian push north begins here. Popasna is a regional hub containing many roadway junctions and a railway. As we can see on this little map—roads extending north, east and south allowing for easier Russian advances and movement. And the railway—if still in service, can potentially be used for resupply.
The battle for Popasna was long, starting on 18th March. Ending May 7.

May 13 or 14 – Oleksandropillia fell—a small settlement north of Popasna. The Russian plan appears to be to close the gap around Lyschansk and Severodonetsk, cutting off Ukrainian forces.

May 18 and 19 – We see multiple attacks from Popasna—to the north capturing Vrubivka and to the west capturing Druzhba.
May 20 and 21 – Russian advances from Popasna continued. Capturing smaller settlements in the region and further establishing control.

May 23 and 24 – Myronnivs’skyi fell to the south of popasna

24 and 25 – we see Russia has taken Rozsadky and Svitodars’k with fighting starting in Luhans’ske—the village.

Also, we see Russia take Lypove and Vasylivka northn west of Popasna.

Finally—the map from May 26 shows the situation as of now. With assaults from Popasna auccessfully having captured a number of Ukraine towns and villages in the past few days.

It took a while—but the capture of Popasna was a key victory for Russia. As you can see, it has allowed them advance north, south and to a lesser degree—west.
Now, Ukraine has had some successes. On May 25, Russian forces took up positions on the Bakhmut-Lyschansk road which would allow them to cut off supplies to siverodonetsk and continue an attempted encirclement. On May 26—it was reported that Russian forces withdrew, so the key supply route is still open. There was also the failed Siversky-donetsk river crossing. It appears Russia intended to attack from the north and south, but the northern assault failed.

Forbes reports that the assault from Popasna involved 106 BTGs. Units involved ar Chechen troops, airborne units and Wagner mercenaries. So, where are they aiming for. It is likely the western push from Popasna is aiming for Bakhmut—13 miles away. Whereas the northern push is intended to encircle Severodonetsk. Severodonetsk is well defended with Forbes reporting at least three brigades.

So, does Ukraine need to worry? I don’t know enough to say. I’m far from an expert. But we can see the offensive is slow. It’s not like a Bltizkrieg—Russian progress is slow and they are losing many men, armor and vehicles a day. But Ukraine is also losing troops and equipment.

On the other hand, we have Ukrainian forces gathering in the Kherson region and the recently finished battle of Kharkiv. So Russian forces could soon be under assault from other fronts. There is also the fact that Ukraine is getting more and more equipment from NATO. Some good equipmen like the CAESAR and Panzerhaubitze, to replace lost stock. Whereas Russia’s lost equipment is replaced by tanks and vehicles dragged out of storage—many of which are quite old and in poor condition.
Russia also seems to have got its logistical supply lines sorted out which works in their favor.
But, I guess this is something we are going to have to wait and see. I’m not an expert and don’t know the ins and outs. So I’d rather not speculate too much.