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Daily Video update for Friday, May 13, 2022.
Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Daily Video Update
For Friday May 13, 2022
Announcements
1. SPXInvestingBlog.com
All slide files available.
2. YouTube Comments
I am going to open up YouTube comments completely to see how that works for a week or so. Inappropriate, vulgar, immature, irrelevant and bot posts will be deleted. If you desire to contact me, please email me at John@spxinvesting.com.
3. InterMarket Analysis (IMA). Added video.
Recap 1: Thursday, May 12, 2022
Open
Gap lower Open to below S1(3893).
Buying tried to take prices higher and went positive but stalled below the daily pivot.
Prices fell back to negative and back down to S1.
Midday:
Failed buying took prices below S1 but did not reach S2 (3851).
Close
Late day buying took prices back to almost UNCH.
Down: -0.13%
Volume:
Above average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates, geopolitical concerns, earnings.
Recap 2: Thursday, May 12, 2022
Market Comments:
The USD has risen above the Euro.
Wide intraday range. (+0.80 to -1.90), Bear market signals (-20%) at lows may have triggered buying.
The S&P 500 was down but the technicals continue to show improvement.
Interest rates and stocks declined together.
Fear is very extreme.
The VIX declined.
S&P 500 is in correction territory.
Economic Reports:
Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.5% m/m, as expected. Excluding food and energy, increased just 0.4% (expected 0.6%). Up less than feared on a y/y and m/m basis.
Trend Condition:
Trend: Negative (strengthening). Bias (Negative). Momentum (Negative).
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
SPX Sectors
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Technical Overview
Friday, May 13, 2022 Positive
Market Positives
Energy
CRB
Gold
Interest rates
Staples.
Friday, May 13, 2022 Negative
Technical Overview: Market Negatives
Dow Jones Comp
World Indexes
Junk Bonds
FANG Index
Small Caps
Dow
Mid Caps
NASDAQ
NDX
NYSE Comp
All Stocks ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Bitcoin Index
WLSH
Treasury and Corporate Bond Prices.
Trend Analysis
Breadth Analysis
Advance/Decline, NH/NL Studies
Short Term
Days to Weeks
Intermediate Term
Weeks to Months
Chart Variations
Trading Systems
Weeks to Months
Long Term
Months to Years
Broad Market
Stocks
Broad Market
Other Markets
Bonds
Possible Positive Scenarios
Friday, May 13, 2022 Outlook
Technicals: Negative but may be improving slightly.
Watch the VIX
The markets have broken below a trendless IT range.
Growth vs Value battle
Economic Reports:
Import and Export Prices, and the prelim University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates. Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak. Japan.
Friday, May 13, 2022 Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates and inflation fears (?).
Earnings and Fed Speak that spooks the markets.
B. Technicals negative but oversold.
2. Up (Positive)
A. Oversold bounce? Sentiment extreme negative.
B. Possible positive scenarios. N/A but might be setting up.
C. Technicals: Pivots and previous levels may provide support/resistance.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is above 20, strengthening and showing a negative trend.
Conclusion based on Thursday, May 12, 2022
Overview:
The SPX is negative.
Short-Term:
Negative and oversold.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative and oversold.
Oscillators: Negative and below important MAs.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Thank You!
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
John@SPXInvesting.com
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