Daily Video Update for Thursday, May 5, 2022.

Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Daily Video Update
For Thursday May 5, 2022
Open
Positive Open
Above the Daily Pivot.
Midday:
Selling took prices to S1 (4148).
Pre-announcement took buying back positive.
Crazy reaction after the FOMC Announcement.
Close
Late day buying took prices above R2 (4227) and to 4300.
Closed almost at the high
Up: 2.99%
Volume:
Above average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates, geopolitical concerns, earnings shocks and surprises.
Market Comments:
Fed Chair Powell said 75bp moves not likely. 50bps likely at next two meetings. Will start a tapering plan.
Technicals negative but much improvement. Many pivot levels regained on indexes.
Regained IT support
Lack of New Highs
Staples/SPX Spike looking viable.
Heating oil rising and Gas spiking
S&P 500 is in correction territory.
10-5 Yield curve is even.
Economic Reports:
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March decreased to 57.1% (expected 58.7%) from 58.3% in March. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%.
The trade deficit widened to a record $109.8 billion.
The ADP Employment Change report estimated that 247,000 jobs were added.
The final IHS Markit Services PMI for April increased to 55.6 from 54.7 in the preliminary reading.
The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 2.5% following an 8.5% decline last prior week.
Trend Condition:
Trend: Negative (weakening). Bias (Positive). Momentum (Mixed).
YTD performance:
Dow Jones Industrial Average -6.3% YTD
S&P 500 -9.8% YTD
Russell 2000 -13.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -17.1% YTD
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
Inflation
SPX Sectors
Isabelnet Blog
FED Watch
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Technical Overview
Outperforming
Technical Overview: Market Strength-Outperforming
Value/Growth
Growth/Bond prices.
10 Year Yield/Tech and SPX
Low Volatility/SPX
Energy/SPX/SPY
Energy/Tech
CRB/SPX
Gold/SPX
Staples/Discretionary
Junk Bonds/Treasury Bonds.
Market Positives
Energy
CRB
Gold
Interest rates
Staples.
Underperforming
Technical Overview: Market Weakness-Underperforming
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500
S&P 500/10 Year Yield
Growth/Value
Tech/Interest rates and SPX/SPY
SPX/CRB
S&P 100/S&P 500
Discretionary/Staples.
Technical Overview: Market Negatives
Dow Jones Comp
World Indexes but improving
Junk Bonds outperforming Treasury Bonds but Junk Bonds are negative.
FANG Index
Small Caps
Dow
Mid Caps
NASDAQ
NDX
NYSE Comp
All Stocks ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Bitcoin Index
WLSH
World Indexes
Corporate Bond Prices.
Technical Overview: SPX Negative Indicators
SPX Positive
Technical Overview: SPX Positive Indicators
Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO)
Chaiken Oscillator
ROC 1
ROC 5
20/50/200 EMA
A/D Study Price
A/D Study Ratio: 1 Day
McClellan Oscillator
PMOs Percent of PMOs Rising
SPX/SPY Elder Impulse System
Slope Oscillator
Parabolic SAR
Stochastic ST
Force Index
StochRSI
Williams %R
Summation Index (Price/Volume)
Accumulation/Distribution
RSI 9
A/D 19/39 Study.
SPX Positive Setups
Coppick Curve
Mass index
Pring Bottom Fisher
SML/SPX Ratio Small Cap Thrust
Positive backdrop after an inverted yield curve.
Staples/SPX Spike
Trend Analysis
Breadth Analysis
Advance/Decline, NH/NL Studies
Intermediate Term
Weeks to Months
Trading Systems
Long Term
Months to Years
Broad Market
Stocks
Broad Market
Other Markets
Bonds
Potential Scenarios Developing
Outlook
Technicals: Negative but improving.
The markets remain in a trendless IT range.
Growth vs Value battle
Economic Reports:
Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report and preliminary Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates. Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak. Japan.
Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates and inflation fears.
Earnings and Fed Speak that spooks the markets.
B. Technicals negative but ST oversold.
2. Up (Positive)
A. Thrust bounce may change the negative tone.
B. Possible positive scenarios
B. Technicals: MAs and pivots may provide support/resistance.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is above 20, starting but declining and showing a negative trend.
Conclusion
Overview:
The SPX is negative.
Short-Term:
Negative but bouncing from oversold.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative but bouncing from oversold and improving.
Oscillators: Improving but negative and below important MAs.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Thank You!
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
John@SPXInvesting.com