Porkopolis Economics

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-fourth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:25 Bonds... and two charts! 00:50 How important is the bond market? 03:40 Importance of 10-year note 04:34 Components of a bond (Yield most important!) 06:14 YTM history of US Treasury 10-yr note 10:11 Bond price sensitivity chart 16:15 Price sensitivity of 10-yr note only 19:55 What happens when yields rise? Pain... 24:15 What happens when yields fall? Fun... Here we look at the main reason why banks are struggling today, and in general: The prices of government bonds have fallen drastically in the last year, as bond yields (or interest rates) have risen. This is the main reason why banks like SVB and others are failing. Remember, the price/value of bonds moves in the opposite direction of their yields/rates! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:43 Log scale 02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared) 05:57 1-sigma percentile moves 06:30 2-sigma percentile moves 08:30 3-sigma percentile moves 10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June 15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline 18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared) 22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price? Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target? All-time trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588% Year end 2011 trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-second video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:56 Bitcoin on log scale, in terms of gold 02:27 Tops and bottoms in USD, what does it mean for BTC.AU? 18:15 Bitcoin priced in gold power trendline (95% R-squared) 18:57 1-sigma percentile moves 20:42 2-sigma percentile moves 24:47 Projecting out to 2030 Here we compare the price per bitcoin in terms of gold; that is, how many gold ounces can we exchange for 1 bitcoin at any point in time? We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels. Coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 8.14E-21 * x ^ 582% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

This clip is a recap from #32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA. Why do bitcoins economically compare to base money, and not bank money? Full ep here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zghGPfY3J8I&t=2007s

This clip is a recap from #32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA. Pinpointing the difference between market money and state money as a basis for monetary philosophy! Full ep here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zghGPfY3J8I&t=2007s

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the one hundred forty-seventh podcast episode from Crypto Voices. Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Matthew interviews Alex Gladstein from the Human Rights Foundation on recent banking turmoil, CBDCs, and HRF's new CBDC tracker fellowship he will be working on, together with Janine from This Month in Bitcoin Privacy, and Nick Anthony from the Cato Institute. Contents 00:00 Intro 02:25 Silvergate and SVB 13:33 CBDCs and the HRF Tracker Links for more info: https://hrf.org/cbdctracker/ Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Podcast & videos Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty Thanks for watching! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-first video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 04:50 Remember PSR is gross ratio (before expenses) 05:20 PSR doesn't compare across industries 08:07 PSR all-time average 10:30 PSR power regression trendline (60% R-squared) 13:30 1-sigma percentile moves 14:12 2-sigma percentile moves 19:40 Log scale on right axis We go deeper into the Bitcoin network's Price-to-sales ratio, what it looks like historically, as well as the evolution of its own power trendline with percentile bands. Coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 4.74E-05 * x ^ 163% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the fortieth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:28 Origins of metric 01:54 Numerator: Market cap ($) 03:42 Denominator: Trailing-12 month miner network revenue ($) 05:55 Ratio recap and importance 09:10 "Price-to-sales" (PSR) ratio for Bitcoin 10:30 PSR: All-time low 16:20 PSR: All-time high 19:37 Basic interpretation of low and high PSR Here we compare the Bitcoin network supply in USD-terms (otherwise known as the market cap) with the miner trailing-12 month revenue (block reward + fees) across the entire network. This gives us a gross "Price-to-sales" ratio; in other words, how many multiples the network is worth versus network-wide revenues, at any given time. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-ninth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:31 Bitcoin supply in BTC-terms 02:07 Bitcoin supply in USD-terms (market cap) 02:41 Four basic regression trendlines 03:09 Bitcoin market cap power trendline (96% R-squared) 05:13 Log scale 06:30 1-sigma percentile moves 07:05 2-sigma percentile moves 19:36 Predictive trendlines Here we compare the Bitcoin network supply in native bitcoins with the Bitcoin network supply in US-dollars. We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels. Coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 4.39E-22 * x ^ 657% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-eighth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:37 Block epochs ("halvings") 05:50 Projected supply until 2030 08:11 Genesis block (and client release) 11:14 How does this compare with gold and resources? 15:12 Market cap (supply in dollar-terms) Dissecting the total Bitcoin supply curve since 3 January 2009, all the out until 31 December 2030. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-seventh installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:42 Trailing-12 month revenue: Fees 01:02 Trailing-12 month revenue: Issuance 01:33 Issuance component % of total revenue 07:48 How does this compare to more established industries? Dissecting the total issuance (block reward), PLUS network fees, paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis; in other words, total mining revenue (annualized). Similar to my last video, but now this is in USD (US-dollar) terms! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-sixth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:54 Trailing-12 month revenue: Issuance 05:13 Trailing-12 month revenue: Fees 07:55 How long until the breakdown % crosses? Dissecting the total issuance (block reward), PLUS network fees, paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis; in other words, total mining revenue (annualized). https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-fifth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 02:00 Terminology: Block reward and issuance 07:08 Note: Gross not net! This is revenue before expenses 08:13 Nature of this chart: Trailing 12-month run rate 17:03 Block reward and issuance in USD terms 24:40 Power regression on USD issuance rate (93% R-squared) 30:27 1-sigma percentile bands 32:30 2-sigma percentile bands Dissecting the total issuance (block reward) paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-fourth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:45 TTM fees in BTC terms 10:30 TTM fees in USD terms 17:00 Power regression on USD TTM fees (90% R-squared) 23:00 1-sigma percentile bands 24:11 2-sigma percentile bands Dissecting the total fees paid to miners on the Bitcoin network over a rolling 365-day basis. Apologies for the audio this video... had to use backup mic!! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the one hundred forty-sixth podcast episode from Crypto Voices. Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Matthew and Alec review the Western stance toward Ukraine one year after Russia's invasion, the total US money supply, and phone number privacy. Contents 00:00 Intro-UFOs 05:25 Ukraine 38:18 Total money supply USA 01:03:50 Privacy update Links for more info: https://chalice-perky470.medium.com/its-not-me-it-s-you-4348abbbcd10 Contact Alec at HALO for help: chalice.perky470@anonaddy.me Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Podcast & videos Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty Thanks for watching! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-third installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:47 M0 02:48 M1 non-M0 03:33 M2 non-M1 03:44 M3 non-M2 07:37 Assets vs. Liabilities of CCs 11:40 Batching 13:18 CC purchase volume in 2022 = $9.56 trillion 14:40 Revolving credit USA 17:08 Credit card debt vs. Demand deposits 24:00 HALO Privacy Bonus video on the US money supply! Which "M curve" do credit card purchases and debt fit into? The answer is... none! Credit cards are an entirely different type of economic activity than bank money, and state money, which we studied in the previous twelve videos in our money supply series. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-second installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:33 Bank reserves 02:35 Fed repos 03:55 Vault cash 05:55 M0 08:30 M1 non-M2 (Demand deposits) 10:20 M2 non-M1 11:55 M3 non-M2 14:50 State money % of Total money 15:05 Total money supply 22:40 Hybrid market vs. Free market 30:10 How does Bitcoin fit in with all of this?? 34:02 How big could Eurodollars be in M3? Here is our final video in this money supply intro series and look into the nature of the United States dollar. We are putting together central bank money, or base money - also known as state money - with all of the bank and shadow bank money supplies in the US (M1, M2, M3, or inside money). Can we learn anything about where Bitcoin might economically compare and fit in with these money supplies? https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-first installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 03:10 Monetary base 07:50 Gold on Fed's balance sheet (Market value) 16:30 Gold on Fed's balance sheet (Native ounces) 24:20 Gold 'reserved' at market price 33:36 Gold 'reserved' at statutory price 37:13 Central banking, free banking, gold, no gold Here is our second video covering outside money in the United States, also known as central bank money, or reserve money, or base money, or the monetary base. In this one we are comparing base money (a liability for the Fed), with it's historical gold reserves (an asset for the Fed). How important is the idea of a gold 'reserve?' https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirtieth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 02:05 Inside versus Outside money 07:50 M0 is a part of both Inside and Outside money 09:20 Be cautious: M0 as defined by different central banks! 10:30 Vault cash 11:28 Bank reserves 17:30 Physical cash % of Base money 22:55 Monetary base (as officially defined) 23:30 Fed repos (Shadow bank reverse repos) 31:00 Gold vs. Fiat base money vs. Bitcoin Here is our first video covering outside money in the United States, also known as central bank money, or reserve money, or base money, or the monetary base. M0 is included in base money, as well as the M1 money supply (which we have already covered)! Now that we have covered the inside money (fiduciary media) in the United States, we can deeper look into central bank money, or base money, and how this type of money is the core of the financial and monetary system. It economically compares with gold, silver, and bitcoin. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the twenty-ninth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:13 M0 03:04 M1 04:50 M2 06:40 M3 (Fed discontinued) 09:30 M3 19:03 M0 % of M3 21:52 M1% of M3 25:40 M2% of M3 30:27 Next up is base money Here we have concluded the entire breakdown (and reconstruction) of the entire United States *public-facing* money supply, from M0, to M1, to M2, and now M3. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the twenty-eighth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:58 Money supply "stack" 02:38 What is a Eurodollar? 05:50 How did the Federal Reserve count Eurodollars? 08:35 Eurodollars (Fed discontinued) 10:56 Eurodollars (Porkopolis) 20:30 Argentina's stack of Eurodollars 24:30 Measuring Eurodollars: Much work to do! 26:10 Stablecoins 29:03 M3 non-M2 Total Here we look at the next level up for the United States money supply: the M3 money stock. Note that M2 is included in the M3 money supply; however, in this video we cover only the non-M2 monetary components. Specifically in this video, we are covering Eurodollars. This is the last video looking at the non-M2 portion of M3 money. It is a challenge to reconstruct this data, since the Fed stopped publishing this money supply in February 2006. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the twenty-seventh installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:48 Money supply "stack" 02:47 Federal Reserve presser on M3 discontinuation 05:05 Repo market summary 05:28 Why repos: #1 Shadow banking 08:57 Why repos: #2 Liquidity 10:41 Why repos: #3 Leverage 12:30 M3 non-M2 Total (Fed discontinued) 12:39 Large time deposits & Institutional money market funds 13:40 Repos (Banks) 16:30 Repos (Shadow banks) 19:25 Former Fed economist explains repos and M3 24:10 Repos (Fed) 28:58 Fed knows it's a monopoly actor 31:45 Adding up all M3 money supplies found so far Here we look at the next level up for the United States money supply: the M3 money stock. Note that M2 is included in the M3 money supply; however, in this video we cover only the non-M2 monetary components. Specifically in this video, we are covering repurchase agreements. These next few videos will review how it is a challenge to reconstruct this data, since the Fed stopped publishing this money supply in February 2006. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the twenty-sixth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:42 Money supply "stack" 06:37 Institutional time deposits 08:40 M3 non-M2 Total (Fed discontinued) 12:45 Institutional money market funds 16:45 Large time deposits % of M3 non-M2 Total Here we look at the next level up for the United States money supply: the M3 money stock. Note that M2 is included in the M3 money supply; however, in this video we cover only the non-M2 monetary components. These next few videos will review how it is a challenge to reconstruct this data, since the Fed stopped publishing this money supply in February 2006. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the twenty-fifth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:30 Money supply "stack" 02:50 M0 03:37 M1 05:30 M2 09:24 M0 % of M2 11:00 Remember, fiduciary media 14:15 M1 % of M2 Here we look at the next level up for the United States money supply: the M2 money stock. In this video we are summing up all the components of the M2 money supply. (including M1). https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the twenty-fourth installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:30 Money supply "stack" 02:25 Savings deposits 09:00 M2 non-M1 Total 11:10 Retail money market funds 15:50 Small time deposits 20:10 Savings deposits % of M2 non-M1 Total Here we look at the next level up for the United States money supply: the M2 money stock. Note that M1 is included in the M2 money supply; however, in this video we cover only the non-M1 monetary components. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.