Anatomy of a Drone Strike: Deliberate Targeting
Links:
JP 3-60: https://www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Joint_Chiefs-Joint_Targeting_20130131.pdf
CDE: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/no-strike-collateral-damage-estimation/6632f2785aff5bba/full.pdf
NYT Document: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/nc-3-1-17-syria/c45c09e1f5e1f313/full.pdf
00:00 - Introduction
01:08 - Deliberate vs. Dynamic Targeting
04:24 - Differing Experiences
08:16 - F3EAD and Shibboleths
11:03 - The POI
13:09 - Database Management and Triage
15:53 - Target Development
17:43 - Intelligence Collection
26:28 - POL Analysis
41:20 - "Dual Use" Facilities
50:23 - Collateral Damage Estimation
58:22 - CDE Mitigation
01:05:35 - The TDWG
01:14:39 - The JTCB
01:18:12 - The Strike
01:20:40 - Battle Damage Assessment
01:25:36 - CIVCAS
01:31:50 - Closing Thoughts
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DISCLAIMER: This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney.
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The Wire - June 3, 2024
//The Wire//1630Z June 3, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MEXICO ELECTS FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT. GERMANY REINFORCES UKRAINE’S EXPANDED USE OF EXPORTED MUNITIONS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: The police officer (who’s name has not yet been released officially) wounded in the recent terror attack in Mannheim died of his wounds overnight. AC: The German government continues to censor the terrorist attack heavily, and has reportedly ordered footage of the attack to be removed from social media platforms.
In Berlin, the expected escalation of the war in Ukraine is underway, as insinuated by Major General Christian Freudig in a televised interview over the weekend. Speaking of the recent authorization of Germany to allow Ukraine to target sites within Russia with exported munitions, General Freudig stated that “It is quite conceivable that the 'Patriot' systems will now also be used in the Kharkiv area and about Russia. They are ideally suited to combat the Russian aircraft which can deploy the terrible glide bombs”.
Red Sea/HOA: Much debate remains following Houthi claims that they had successfully struck an American warship in the Red Sea, namely the USS EISENHOWER. No video evidence has been provided by the Houthis (who commonly claim to strike American warships in the region) to substantiate these claims. AC: Houthi forces regularly engage American warships at sea, but so far all missile and drone attacks have been intercepted successfully with regards to attacks directed at warships. Due to the limitations of the weapons systems currently fielded, it is challenging for US Navy ships to use their own defense systems to defend other ships not inside their Task Force (i.e. a cargo ship sailing many miles away). However, when it comes to shipborne defenses (particularly those of an aircraft carrier, with the combined defenses of the escorts) it’s not likely for Houthi forces to be successful in an attack with one or two missiles. However, perhaps making the information warfare situation worse, the Captain of the EISENHOWER posted a short video clip of aviation operations on his social media account on June 1st, after the alleged strike. Many social media watchers took this as an implication that the EISENHOWER suffered no damage…however the clip was from a few months ago. Consequently, many on social media (and various accounts linked to the CCP) have claimed that the US is covering up a successful strike with older video clips. However, it must be noted that the Captain of the EISENHOWER, like most senior military leadership, possesses a rather unique leadership and social media style which may be strange to a civilian audience, and is known to re-post older content frequently. Nothing about the recent re-post implied it was intended to serve as proof of an unsuccessful strike, however the poor timing of the incident caused more scrutiny of official Navy social media accounts than probably intended. This, combined with the recent announcement that the EISENHOWER’s deployment has been extended, casts doubt as to what the truth is. As to whether or not the Houthis met with success this time, there is no reliable information to indicate what really happened. Statistically speaking, it is only a matter of time before the Houthi’s get lucky and a major escalation in the region flares up again. However, the most likely form of success for the Houthis does not like with single-munition strikes against heavily defended vessels.
Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum has been elected President. She will begin her 6-year term on October 1. AC: Sheinbaum has raised much debate on immigration issues due to her socialist background, which strongly indicates that US/Mexico relations with regards to reconciling border issues likely will not occur anytime soon.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Considering the range of Russian glide bombs (which varies significantly by release altitude and glide envelope, but most of which are well outside the effective range of Patriot systems) recent rhetoric from Western powers very strongly indicates that Ukraine will attempt to shoot down Russian aircraft inside Russian territory, if they wan. However, the implication of this statement is possibly more substantial considering the very short range of the Patriot missile system (publicly, around 40-60 miles, depending on missile variant, with a much shorter operationally effective defensive range). As such Ukraine would have to deploy Patriot systems on the border with Russia (or even inside Russia) in order to be effective, which is not militarily viable considering the observed high casualty rate of Patriot batteries.
It also must be noted that Germany, for the moment, has denied the export of German-made Taurus cruise missile systems which have been requested by Ukraine. Germany has specifically denied the export of certain German-made munitions for fears that exporting German-made weapons systems would draw Germany into the war more directly. As a result, Germany has authorized the export of the American made weapons that Germany had previously purchased.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire GRINTSUM: Social Tensions, Expanding Warfare, and Political Targeting
00:00 - Northeast Region
10:37 - Southwestern Region
11:26 - Western Region
15:33 - Western Europe
23:23 - Eastern Europe
33:45 - Far East
37:10 - GhostNet News
39:40 - Closing Thoughts
The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground
And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire
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Disclaimer:
No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Please note that even though it hurts our income, we still offer ad-free watching via alternative platforms like Odysee, Gab, and (for now) Rumble.
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Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, we can't cover everything. We're probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if we left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that we do these briefings quite often, so we might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. We're also doing this in our spare time, so again we fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; we're going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If we were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" we would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, we will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing, whenever that is. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information.
This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney.
Our Reading List!
https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual
The War Kitchen Channel!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA
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The Wire - May 31, 2024
//The Wire//1430Z May 31, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STABBING ATTACK STRIKES MANNHEIM. CHICKEN FARM BURNS IN ILLINOIS. POLISH ARMS DEPOT DESTROYED IN FIRE. DONALD TRUMP CONVICTED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: An attempted assassination of Michael Stürzenberger was carried out by an Islamic terrorist wielding a knife in Mannheim. AC: During the struggle, a policeman was also stabbed in the neck by the assailant after possibly tackling the wrong person during the melee. Stürzenberger is a well-known activist famous for his vocal opposition to Islam and Islamic immigration.
Poland: Early unconfirmed reporting indicates an arms supply depot caught fire overnight in Radom. The fire totally destroyed the facility, causing an estimated $120 million in damage (according to some sources). AC: This facility reportedly housed munitions and arms destined for Ukraine.
-HomeFront-
New York: Donald Trump has been convicted of all 34 felony counts presented. His sentencing has been scheduling for July 11th.
Illinois: A 5-alarm fire broke out at Farina Farms of Marion County overnight. The fire totally consumed the complex, resulting in the deaths of potentially millions of chickens. The cause of the incident is unknown. AC: This follows the culling of 4 million hens as a result of bird flu in Iowa.
Washington D.C. – The White House has given permission for Ukraine to conduct strikes inside Russia with the munitions provided by American taxpayers. Germany also granted the same with arms and munitions provided by Germany.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though Ukraine has already very likely used western munitions to target Russia directly, the open admission of such will likely result in even more escalation of the war in Ukraine. Strategically, this move is unlikely to make any difference.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 30, 2024
//The Wire//2030Z May 30, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS CONTINUE IN NORTH KOREA. FRANCE CONTINUES CONSIDERING UKRAINE DEPLOYMENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: Tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue as North Korean forces conduct GPS jamming operations near the border. Reportedly aircraft arriving and departing from Inchon International Airport in Seoul were affected by the jamming. Overnight, North Korean forces also launched approximately 10x SRBMs into the Sea of Japan.
France: Reports continue to mount that France either has, or is about to, deploy troops to Ukraine in some manner. Following the French Foreign Legion fiasco a few weeks ago, a few days ago General Oleksandr Syrsky, the Commander in Chief of the AFU stated that French troops would soon be arriving in Kiev. Later on, Syrsky retracted these claims, stating that talks are still ongoing with regards to a potential French deployment.
-HomeFront-
New York: The verdict for the latest Trump trial is expected soon, which may result in localized demonstrations and/or more substantial federal activities with regards to the restriction of transportation. AC: Mass civil unrest is unlikely, however due to the historic nature of this latest political development, increased situational awareness is recommended.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: It is overwhelmingly likely that France is trying to slowly walk towards openly deploying soldiers in Ukraine, and probably already has taken steps in that direction. With regards to special operations, when a politician of any nation suggests sending forces to a location openly, behind closed doors those forces have probably already been there for some time….the “secret” deployment of special forces from every NATO member to Ukraine has been the most open secret of the entire war (though most of these troops likely have been in more of an “advisory role”, to varying degrees). As such, France (and other NATO members) continuing to call for escalation of the war, either by sending troops or by encouraging Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia, the end result is unlikely to change much.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 29, 2024
//The Wire//2130Z May 29, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DPRK LAUNCHES PROPAGANDA BALLOONS TOWARD SOUTH KOREA. CRIMINAL ACTIVITY IN U.S. CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: The Korean Peninsula has been active following several recent developments. Over the weekend, North Korea unsuccessfully attempted to launch a military satellite into orbit. The space vehicle broke up during the launch. Overnight, South Korean citizens observed hundreds of small balloons that were launched in North Korea’s border region, drifting into South Korea. Most of the balloons contained garbage, manure, or propaganda leaflets.
-HomeFront-
California: The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department has issued a public warning regarding increasingly sophisticated crime tactics in the area. International crime organizations have exhibited more bold tactics, to include emplacing camouflaged surveillance equipment on private property. This tactic specifically is in reference to the arrest of four Columbians who were arrested after using this bold intelligence collection technique as part of expanding their theft network. This tactic was also allegedly used by a separate burglary ring which was recently discovered in Malibu.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In addition to increasingly more capable Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) tactics being used by everyone from routine thieves to foreign intelligence agencies over the past few years, more substantially violent encounters are being reported in the commission of crimes. This has been an unsurprising trend over the past few years, but continues to increase in severity and significance. This has been most clearly demonstrated via several viral incidents that have been observed around the U.S. this summer, in which the burglary victims were shot and/or attacked, even after complying with the thieves. As such, careful observation and situational awareness must be maintained in a time where no quarter is given by regular street criminals, with extreme violence being used in the commission of even the smallest crime.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 27, 2024
//The Wire//2330Z May 27, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: EGYPTIAN, ISRAELI SOLDIERS EXCHANGE GUNFIRE ON BORDER NEAR RAFAH.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning Israeli and Egyptian forces exchanged small arms fire in the vicinity of Rafah, following the Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi corridor. So far, at least one Egyptian soldier has been killed in the skirmish, however this figure could be as high as four. No casualties have been reported on the Israeli side.
In Gaza, the U.S.-built pier is out of action following weather conditions over the weekend that caused several sections of the makeshift landing zone to break free and drift down the beach. It is unclear as to when (or if) this project will be repaired.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: At the moment it is not clear as to which side initiated contact in Rafah. Though official statements have not entirely been forthcoming, both sides seem to claim the other started the engagement. Additionally, this conflict does not appear to have been a simple one-and-done shooting, but may have been a protracted small arms engagement over a period of many minutes. As of this report, the engagement(s) between Israel and Egypt seem to have subsided. As it stands, diplomatic tensions remain at heights historically reminiscent of a widening conflict in the region, though it is too soon to tell if more substantial conflict will arise due to this latest escalation.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire GRINTSUM: Spies, Helicopters, and Taiwan
00:00 - Northeast Region
01:38 - Southeast Region
09:56 - Western Region
12:05 - Western Europe
14:34 - Iranian Helicopter Crash
19:18 - Far East/Taiwan
34:30 - GhostNet Reports
36:56 - Closing Thoughts
The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground
And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire
If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon!
https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515
And if you don't like Patreon, we're also on Playeur!
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Disclaimer:
No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Please note that even though it hurts our income, we still offer ad-free watching via alternative platforms like Odysee, Gab, and (for now) Rumble.
Odysee: https://odysee.com/@S2Underground:7
Gab: https://gab.com/S2underground
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BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/
Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, we can't cover everything. We're probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if we left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that we do these briefings quite often, so we might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. We're also doing this in our spare time, so again we fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; we're going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If we were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" we would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, we will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing, whenever that is. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information.
This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney.
Our Reading List!
https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual
The War Kitchen Channel!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA
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The Wire - May 24, 2024
//The Wire//1800Z May 24, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CHINESE MANEUVERS EXPAND IN TAIWAN STRAIT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: Tensions in the region remain high amid Chinese military drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Limited diplomatic scuffles have been noted between Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels and PLAN ships in the Strait. Overnight, Taiwanese forces noted 49x PLA aircraft, 19x PLAN vessels, and 7 Chinese Coast Guard vessels operating in the Taiwan Strait.
AC: This is a substantial increase in forces seen over the past few months, though these numbers do align with the scale and nature of this drill. However, a difference is the rhetoric from Chinese authorities, which has been more openly hostile than in years past. Several Chinese military officials have directly claimed that these drills are to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan, along with “punishing” Taiwan’s new President for allegedly taking a more pro-independence stance.
Eastern Europe: Diplomatic tensions between Russia and Estonia increased overnight following a border dispute. Estonia alleges that last night Russian forces cut and removed border demarcation buoys in the Narva river, which separates the two nations. These buoys were emplaced by Estonia 10 days ago.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding Taiwan, the looming question persists: “Is this latest exercise the precursor to an invasion?”. At the moment, it’s too soon to tell, but vastly more ships and aircraft would be needed for an invasion to be imminent, along with many other indications and warnings. As such, closely monitoring the situation for invasion precursors would be beneficial over the next few weeks. As it stands, China’s “exercise” could be a drill, or it could be laying the groundwork for a naval blockade of Taiwan.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 23, 2024
//The Wire//1830Z May 23, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MAJOR CHINESE EXERCISES BEGIN IVO TAIWAN. NORTH CAROLINA SHOOTING HIGHLIGHTS INCREASED THREAT ENVIRONMENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: This morning China announced major exercises in the waters around Taiwan. China’s exercise (Joint Sword-2024A) has so far involved a handful of ships carrying out demonstrations and joint maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. AC: A few days ago, Lai Ching-te was sworn in as Taiwan’s President. As such, this exercise almost certainly related to political events in Taiwan. Nevertheless, Taiwanese forces have responded in kind, deploying substantial defenses (such as mobile ASCM launchers) at critical locations around the island.
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: Local media has become aware of a suspicious shooting incident that took place earlier this month. Originally kept quiet due to the investigation, details were released last night surrounding a shooting death involving a Special Operations soldier in Moore County. On May 3rd, local authorities were dispatched to a residence in Carthage in response to a trespassing complaint. Allegedly, the 911 caller also noted that the individual was taking pictures of their residence. After some time, an altercation occurred resulting in the trespassing individual being shot multiple times after allegedly becoming aggressive. Local authorities have identified the man who was shot and killed as Ramzan Daraev. The shooter’s name has been withheld for the moment, but has been identified as a member of the Special Operations community.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The details of the Moore County shooting raise many red flags. Originally, Daraev was said to be an employee of Utilities One, a local electrical utility subcontractor. However at the time of the shooting he was located hundreds of feet onto the caller’s property, was not wearing a uniform, and did not have any identification or equipment suggesting any official work for a utility company. Local media claims Daraev was from Chicago, however he was originally born in Chechnya. This is supported by the foreign identity documents that were reportedly found at the scene. Furthermore, some media sources claim that an accomplice fled the scene in a rental car following the shooting. As this is a developing incident that took place in a highly sensitive community, there is absolutely more to this story than meets the eye.
As a reminder, a very common tactic for foreign intelligence agents is to obtain employment with an entity that grants semi-legitimate access to sensitive locations, such as private residences within a well-known Special Operations community.
Factoring in other trends, and with the understanding that examining events of this magnitude and secrecy must rely on quite a bit of speculation, the tens of thousands of military aged males entering the southern border daily have highlighted the clear and present dangers to American society. It has become extremely clear over the past few months that foreign intelligence activities on U.S. soil have reached heights reminiscent of (and almost certainly surpassing) the height of the Cold War.
Considering the 2022 mysterious electrical substation attack in the exact same area as the recent Moore County shooting, it is likely that the shadow war on American soil is continuing to escalate to include targeting the personal lives and family members of the Special Operations community.
Incidents surrounding security breaches at U.S. military bases have also quietly been increasing over the past few months. For instance, Marine Corps Base Quantico quietly revealed that on May 3rd, the same day as the Moore County shooting, two Jordanian nationals attempted to breach the main gate while driving a box truck. Allegedly, one of the individuals detained in this incident was on a known terror watch list, and had crossed the southern U.S. border only three days prior. Interestingly, this incident was not released even to the Marines on the base until two weeks later, when the story leaked to the media. This breach is similar to another fatal gate-crash attempt that occurred three weeks ago at Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek, the home of various Navy special forces units.
Adding weight to the severity of risks to the homeland, the EPA has recently revealed increased efforts to improve security at various water treatment facilities; specific to the efforts are concerns that cyberattacks may result in fatal amounts of chemicals being used to poison various water supplies (as already happened in Florida and California in 2021).
As such, exceptionally vigilant situational awareness is strongly recommended at this heightened period of increasing Indications and Warnings of domestic terror attacks, security incidents, and intelligence collection operations conducted by a plethora of foreign adversaries on U.S. soil.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 22, 2024
//The Wire//2130Z May 22, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: U.S. TAPS NORTHEAST GASOLINE RESERVE. U.K. PM CALLS FOR NEW ELECTIONS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: PM Rishi Sunak has called for a snap election, scheduled to take place on July 4th.
-HomeFront-
California – Yesterday a judge dismissed the criminal felony convictions of five former Navy officers as part of the infamous “Fat Leonard” corruption scandal. All five officers had admitted to, and were convicted of, receiving bribes as part of the 2013 investigation. AC: The Fat Leonard corruption scandal is one of the most widely-documented and infamous cases of military corruption to strike the Pentagon within recent memory. Allegedly, these convictions were dismissed at the request of the U.S. government, however this cannot be independently confirmed at this time with any certainty.
Washington D.C. – The White House authorizes the release of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Strategic Reserve allegedly to combat high gas prices.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: This strategic reserve release (amid reports of a highly kinetic hurricane season looming) is probably intended to remove strategic assets rather than reduce gas prices. Gas prices during this year’s Memorial Day travel weekend are unlikely to be affected much by a strategic release either. Per the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), last year the United States averaged using around 376 million gallons of gasoline per day. For perspective and scale, the release of one million barrels (42 million gallons) from a strategic reserve could fuel the United States’ gasoline requirements for a little over 2.6 hours.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 21, 2024
//The Wire//1700Z May 21, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ICC CONSIDERS ARREST WARRANTS FOR ISRAELI AND HAMAS OFFICIALS. DETAILS OF IRANIAN HELO CRASH REMAIN CONTRADICTORY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Iran: Details continue to become contradictory following the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. New Iranian press statements have indicated that at least two other helicopters were involved in the incident to some degree…the collection of VIPs were not traveling in one lone helicopter as initially claimed by Iranian media (and some western sources). However, it is not clear as to if these helicopters were flying as an assembled flight, or if there was some separation of time between each of the aircraft’s transit south through the valley to Tabriz.
The Hague: The lead prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC) has recommended the issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanhayu and Defense Minister Gallant, as well as Hamas commander in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar. The ICC will now hear evidence to determine if arrest warrants shall be issued.
Singapore: One passenger was killed, and many others injured during an extreme turbulence event on a routine flight between London and Singapore. Singapore Airlines Flight SQ321 experienced substantial turbulence as the long-haul flight neared the coast of Thailand. Following the extreme turbulence, the aircraft made an emergency landing in Thailand. AC: As the turbulence occurred unexpectedly, little warning was given to passengers, causing at least 30 passengers to suffer varying injuries to include a few cases of severe blunt force trauma. This incident did result in one fatality, but it is not clear as to if this occurred as a direct result of trauma due to the kinetic turbulence, or due to an underlying medical issue. The deceased passenger has not yet been identified by the airline.
New Caledonia: Australia and New Zealand have reportedly begun repatriation flights for their citizens located on the former French Colony. Violence continues as France deploys increasing numbers of forces to the region to maintain order.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Overnight, Congolese forces allegedly halted a coup attempt, arresting possibly two Americans who allegedly planned to support and coordinate the efforts of a local guerrilla group. AC: So far, it’s too soon to tell if this is a legitimate coup attempt, or something else entirely. Two people are unlikely to overthrow anyone singlehandedly, but this would also not be the first time that a spy got caught engaging in espionage. Nor would it be out of the question for the local warlords of the DRC to grab a westerner and fabricate a story to consolidate power. As there are far too many variables and far too few reliable information sources in the region, the truth of this incident is unlikely to come forth for the time being.
-HomeFront-
South Carolina: The South Carolina Port Authority has announced that yesterday’s software issue has been resolved, and all terminals are resuming operations. No further details have been provided as to the specific cause of this outage.
Washington D.C. – H.R. 8445 has been introduced in Congress. This bill would amend U.S. Title 38 and the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act to expand eligibility of all military servicemember benefits to any American citizen serving in the Israeli Defense Forces. Per the text of the bill as provided by the bill’s sponsor, “the service of a citizen of the United States in the Israeli Defense Forces shall be treated in the same manner as service in the uniformed services.”. AC: This appears to be the first and only time (at least in U.S. history) whereby a nation is considering granting military servicemember benefits to those in the military service of a foreign nation. As such, it’s not certain how this situation will develop or if other factors such as the United States Uniform Code of Military Justice, Law of Armed Conflict, Rules of Engagement, or other legalities will apply to these select IDF soldiers as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the discrepancies with the official Iranian helicopter crash story begin to mount, it is important to consider the commonality of the events that took place to result in this disaster. On the one hand, Iranian officials revealing that two additional aircraft were involved makes sense…but prompts the question of how the only aircraft with the President onboard could be the one that crashed, and the other two aircraft had no idea anything happened at all, as insinuated by Iranian media. Putting together the timeline of events is challenging, and results in any number of scenarios or theories as to how this incident could have occurred. It’s possible for one aircraft out of three to become separated from the others. It’s also possible for the other two aircraft to have departed several minutes before or after the President’s helicopter, those crucial minutes resulting in tragedy. Though completely speculative considering the lack of data available, it also wouldn’t be unheard of for a VIP to delay a departure, personally urging the other two aircraft (also carrying VIPs) to head back with the intent of catching up en route. Alternatively, the President could have been late for another meeting and flew ahead of the other two, with disastrous results. It is also possible that extreme weather conditions restricted visibility to the point that the formation broke up, with each pilot managing their own aircraft out of the valley. This is not entirely uncommon, but also causes additional questions to arise, such as how or why the two additional aircraft did not hear any radio distress calls or note any transponder data.
Nonetheless, considering all factors (none of which are completely definitive by any means) the oddity of losing the most important aircraft in a formation of three does increase the likelihood of either nefarious action or a more serious (and embarrassing for Iran) accident. As with most aviation incidents, the nuts and bolts of how tragedy strikes is a long chain of causation, with sometimes hundreds of events lining up perfectly for a disaster to occur. Considering the current international tensions, either a consolidation of power, foreign assassination, mechanical failure, sheer ignorance, incompetence, or bad luck…any one of these theories likely means the same for Iran’s future. More tension via the inevitable election season woes along with tamping down international embarrassment, and Iran always trying to save face in the international arena. Whatever the cause of this accident, most nations around the world seem to implicitly blame either the United States or Israel for the crash. If this accident was indeed purely an accident, the diplomatic complexities of Iran trying to save face in the wake of ‘the attack than never was’ probably will cause domestic problems for the Ayatollah as well.
Regarding the recent activities at the Hague, the recent events involving potential arrest warrants probably don’t mean much at all in the long run. However, the second order effects and responses to this development are worthy of note. As a reminder, 12 Republican Senators singed a letter directed to the ICC’s lead prosecutor on April 24th. This letter contained openly threatening language, stating “If you issue a warrant for the arrest of the Israeli leadership, we will interpret this not only as a threat to Israel’s sovereignty, but to the sovereignty of the United States.”. The letter also contained threatening language towards the prosecutor personally, to include his family, stating “Target Israel and we will target you. If you move forward with the measures indicated in the report, we will move to end all American support for the ICC, sanction your employees and associates, and bar you and your families from the United States. You have been warned”.
Language such as this is not only openly threatening, but also contradictory. Currently, the charges brought forth to achieve arrest warrants are not with regards to Israeli kinetic targeting practices, but those regarding the deliberate starvation of the Palestinian population in Gaza. Israel has openly admitted to deliberately withholding international food aid, and the United States building a naval logistics hub and continuing to airdrop food is a de facto admission to this deliberate starvation as well. Perhaps most importantly, it is unclear as to how the ICC potentially investigating Israel has any bearing on the national sovereignty of the United States as directly stated in the letter. This minor footnote may be a tacit admission of a reality that the American people are not yet ready to rationalize.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire GRINTSUM - May 12-18, 2024
00:00 - Southwestern Region
03:12 - Western Region
09:12 - Eastern Europe
18:01 - Far East
25:01 - GhostNet Reports
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The Wire - May 17, 2024
//The Wire//1800Z May 17, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PM FICO REMAINS IN SERIOUS CONDITION. RUSSIA ANNOUNCES, IMMEDIATELY CANCELS NOTAM OFF CALIFORNIA COAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Slovakia: PM Robert Fico remains in serious condition following multiple surgeries since his assassination attempt. Local sources claim his condition remains uncertain, and that it will take several more days before his outcome becomes more clear.
-HomeFront-
Texas: The Pelican Island Causeway Bridge remains closed pending safety inspections. No timeline has been given for its reopening or repair.
California: Yesterday afternoon, the Russian Federation announced (via NOTAM) an area that would be host to rocket activity in international waters, approximately 500nm off the coast of Los Angeles. The notice (A1922/24) went active yesterday, and at the time of posting would be active until May 26. However, as of this morning, the NOTAM has been canceled per the Defense Internet NOTAM Service (DINS) portal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As to the original reason for the Russian NOTAM, few details were provided in the initial notice (which is typical). It could have been to designate the debris field for a Russian space launch, but the language in the initial notice was not typical of such launches and indicated a more military use. On the other hand, the factors provided equally support a space launch, which are frequently rescheduled due to weather (and thus changing the expected booster debris field location).
However, if a Russian military missile launch was planned, announced, and abruptly canceled within a few hours, this would be par for the course with regards to the current strategic tensions between the United States and Russia.
As a reminder, Russia did almost exactly the same in 2022 off the coast of Ireland. Missile drills were announced, planned, then abruptly canceled without comment from Russia. As such, while Russian activities in international waters are generally concerning power-projection moves, the far more concerning military activities are those which are not announced in advance. More strategically, even though virtually zero information is made public regarding the detection of Russian submarines close to American waters, an observable increase in U.S. Navy ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) aircraft has been noted throughout the Atlantic over the past few months. It is very challenging to discern training operations or routine patrols from real-world sub-hunting activity; sometimes the only indicator is a lone P-3C Orion or P-8A Poseidon ASW aircraft flying out to sea, out of range of ADS-B trackers, only to return a few hours later with most Americans none the wiser as to their activities. However, considering the extremely tense situation throughout Europe (especially the war in Ukraine), it only makes sense for Russia to have stepped up clandestine power-projection activities close to America’s borders…and for the United States to quietly be doing likewise.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 16, 2024
//The Wire//2030Z May 16, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SLOVAKIAN PM IN SERIOUS CONDITION FOLLOWING ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. DOMESTIC CONFLICT BEGINS IN NEW CALEDONIA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Slovakia: Local media reports that PM Fico’s condition is still very serious, and it is not yet clear as to if he will survive the assassination attempt. The attacker has been identified as Juraj Cintula, a 71 year old far-left poet of local notoriety for being heavily involved in anti-government rallies. Cintula’s wife has allegedly also been arrested by authorities in connection with the attack.
Far East: Chinese incursion flights in the Taiwan Strait continue. 27x PLA aircraft, 7x PLAN vessels were detected operating in the Strait last night. AC: Again falling short of a major imminent wartime indicator, these incursions are taking place during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China.
South Pacific: Mass violence and riots have broken out in the French territory of New Caledonia following a potential change of the electoral system that locals say will increase French power in the former colony. Hundreds of police have been deployed throughout the island as curfews and other restrictions on movement take effect.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Yesterday morning, an oil barge collided with a bridge in Galveston after its tow line parted. The barge collapsed a portion of the rail line on the Pelican Island Causeway Bridge, and the bridge will be out of action pending safety inspections.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though all eyes are rightfully attentive to critical infrastructure events, tow lines parting and/or mooring lines slipping is a fairly common occurrence throughout America’s waterways. Though the details of this incident are few (like most maritime accidents/incidents), this collision is likely not on the scale of previous disasters. The Pelican Island Causeway Bridge was in bad shape before the incident. The bridge doesn’t host much traffic regularly, and the rail line (which collapsed as a result of the collision) had been out of service for some time due to the aging bridge. However, this bridge is the only way on or off Pelican Island, so the local population of 9,000 people (and the Texas A&M campus on the island) will be affected by the bridge being closed while it is being inspected for damage.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 15, 2024
//The Wire//1630Z May 15, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SLOVAKIAN PM SHOT, IN SERIOUS CONDITION. PLA ACTIVITY INCREASES IN TAIWAN STRAIT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Slovakia: Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot multiple times by a gunman on the street following a meeting in Handlová. The assailant was detained at the scene IVO grid coordinate: 34UCU3523199538. Per governmental press statements, PM Fico is in serious condition after being airlifted to the university hospital in Banská Bystrica. AC: Flying to the nearest local trauma center instead of back to higher level care in the opposite direction (as the crow flies) in the capital city of Bratislava indicates the severity of Fico’s wounds.
Far East: Last night, Taiwanese Defense Forces detected 6 PLAN ships and 45x PLA aircraft operating in the Taiwan Strait. This follows the 23x PLA aircraft detected the previous day.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – The White House has announced another round of foreign aid packages. Reportedly, Ukraine will get another $2 billion and Israel another $1 billion, both in the form of military aid.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: PM Fico’s attempted assassination comes after months of statements critical of the World Economic Forum, COVID vaccination, and the Ukrainian war. Last month, Fico’s government halted military aid to Ukraine, triggering mass protests throughout the nation.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 14, 2024
//The Wire//2030Z May 14, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RUSSIAN MOD CHANGES. HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN RANGE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: MoD Sergei Shoigu has transitioned into a new role as Secretary of the Russian Security Council, following his service as Defense Minister for over a decade. AC: Sources vary widely in even the description of this transition. Western media sources claim Shoigu was fired (or promoted out of the way), whereas pro-Russian sources claim he was promoted into a more substantial and strategic position. Either way, this move is significant as any personnel change (especially at high levels within the defense industry) signals a change in stance, policy, intent, and strategy. However, only time will tell which of these factors Shoigu’s positional change is indicative of.
Georgia: Discontent continues to grow in Tbilisi following weeks of protests. Thousands of protesters demonstrated outside governmental buildings in the capital city over the weekend. AC: As a reminder, these demonstrations are largely in response to Georgia’s parliament potentially adopting a new law which is perceived as granting more power to government to crack down on dissent. However, supporters of the bill claim it will reduce western influence as the bill will require media organizations and NGOs to register as foreign agents if over 20% of their funding originates from outside of Georgia.
Red Sea/HOA: Attacks on commercial shipping continue as Houthi forces demonstrate increasing targeting capabilities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: A few weeks ago, the M/V MSC ORION was targeted by Houthi forces with virtually zero comment from western media sources or official maritime agencies. However, over the past few days the reasoning behind this lack of coverage (or even confirmation of the attack) has become apparent…at the time of the attack the MSC ORION was roughly 800 miles off the coast of Yemen. A successful drone attack this far from Houthi territory signals a significant increase in Houthi capabilities (though the indicators of these capabilities have been present since the conflict began, via other similar incidents that likewise received little attention from the west). Consequently, several maritime security firms and organizations are recommending commercial shipping give Yemeni waters an even wider berth with regards to what has become the main shipping route for western-affiliated companies, the Cape of Good Hope shipping corridor.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 13, 2024
//The Wire//1600Z May 13, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CHINA FLEXES MUSCLE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA. PROTESTS CONTINUE AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: Tensions rise in the South China Sea following Chinese military activities in the region. Last Thursday (and somewhat continuing over the weekend), 11x Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the territorial waters of Kinmen Island in a sharp escalation within the waters of Taiwan’s outlying island county. In the south, conflict with the Philippines has reignited following PLAN vessels both blockading Scarborough Shoal again, and indicating interest in Sabina Shoal (another potential site for China to create another artificial island).
-HomeFront-
USA: Demonstrations at universities continue with varying impact around the nation. Most encampment operations have been shut down at Ivy League institutions, but some persistent demonstrations/protests remain.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The tensions in the South China Sea are above the typical baseline for the region, but fall short of exhibiting major immediate wartime indicators. However, it must be noted that China’s activities to increase the baseline of observable activity are a wartime goal; normalizing the militarization of the region is a valuable strategic advantage for China. As such, China will likely seek to continue expansion in the South China Sea, to the ire of other nations such as the Philippines. Of note, Germany has committed two additional ships to the region, and U.S. Navy freedom-of-navigation patrols have increased in response to China’s activities.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire GRINTSUM - May 5-11, 2024
00:00 - Northeast Region
07:10 - Southeast Region
08:44 - West Central Midwest Region
10:51 - Southwest Region
12:17 - Western Region
27:14 - The Sahel
35:05 - The Mediterranean
37:10 - Closing Thoughts
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Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, we can't cover everything. We're probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if we left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that we do these briefings quite often, so we might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. We're also doing this in our spare time, so again we fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; we're going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If we were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" we would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, we will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing, whenever that is. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information.
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The Wire - May 10, 2024
//The Wire//1500Z May 10, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SALVAGE OPERATIONS REGARDING M/V DALI CONTINUE. G4 GEOMAGNETIC STORM EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: Solar weather conditions indicate possible degradation of radio comms worldwide over the weekend. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G4 geomagnetic storm watch due to 5x Earth-bound Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed over the past 24 hours.
South America: Yesterday the U.S. Embassy in Guyana confirmed that two American aircraft from the USS George Washington CSG conducted a flyover of the capital city of Georgetown. AC: This action is a reminder that tensions in Guyana continue to simmer, as Venezuelan forces continue to build airfields on the border with Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo region.
-HomeFront-
Maryland: Crews continue to work to remove the wreckage of the M/V DALI from the debris of the destroyed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. Salvage operations have been slow going due to the sheer magnitude of the incident. The Unified Command in control of the salvage efforts has announced a major phase of the operation, to remove a major section of the bridge from the bow section of the DALI. Explosives will be used as part of this controlled demolition. As such, locals will hear several explosions in the vicinity of the bridge on Saturday, after 5:30 pm.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The G4 solar storm forecast is significant, but probably won’t have much impact on everyday citizens. This is an unusual event as this is the third G4 storm watch issued since 2019, and the most significant solar event in the past decade.
The biggest impact this may have to citizens around the world (which will vary due to time of day) is the potential loss of grid power, to include power surges. As such, it is recommended to ensure surge protectors are used for sensitive electronics, and the basic preparedness of a power-loss plan is in place just in case limited blackouts occur. As almost all solar events generate panic in the public sphere, it is important to remember that these are regular events that occur at the peak of the solar cycle every few years. A very similar geomagnetic storm event occurred back in March, and very few people noticed or were impacted by it.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire Special Report - May 9, 2024
//The Wire//1600Z May 9, 2024//
//SPECIAL REPORT//
//BLUF: BIDEN CONFIRMS ILLEGAL USE OF AMERICAN BOMBS IN GAZA. CONGRESS INTRODUCES BILLS TO DEPORT UNIVERSITY PROTEST PARTICIPANTS TO GAZA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – For the first time, in an interview with CNN, President Biden has confirmed that American munitions have been illegally used by Israel in Gaza to kill civilians, including children. AC: Of course, taking the direct words of the POTUS is probably not a direct indication of U.S. policy, and should be weighed as such. However, if true, this is also a de facto admission of everything that has been obvious to anyone who is familiar with U.S. kinetic targeting policy (such as described in JP-360).
In Congress, Reps. Andrew Ogles (R-TN), Randy Weber (R-TX), and Jeff Duncan (R-SC) introduced two bills yesterday that are of note for every American. The full text has not been provided for either bill, but the one-sentence summaries have been provided, pending the full text. The titles of the bills are as follows:
H.R.8321 - To require person convicted of unlawful activity on the campus of an institution of higher education beginning on and after October 7, 2023, to provide community service in Gaza.
H.R.8322 - To revoke visas of certain aliens for rioting or unlawful protests, and for other purposes.
AC: This is the entirety of the information present on the Congressional website tracking these bills. All further details surrounding the contents of these bills has originated from direct statements made by the bill’s sponsors themselves.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: From time to time, events transpire in the world that are so outside social norms that it is challenging to choose language with which to describe these events that is not considered to be fallible in some way. So be advised that the mere ideas of these bills (8321 in particular) is not something that can be discussed in a rational or neutral manner due to the implications contained within.
Though the full text of H.R. 8321 is not yet available, statements by Reps. Ogles, Duncan, and Weber strongly indicate the intent of the bill. These primary-source statements strongly indicate that if there ever was a bill that goes beyond the pale of social norms and current laws in the United States, it's this one.
As extreme as this language appears, the language and ideas allegedly contained within these bills are even more extreme. One would be hard pressed to find a bill more dystopian, outright illegal, and the antithesis of everything the United States stands for, the mere introduction of which should (per the U.S. Constitution) be considered to be an act of treason.
One of the bill’s sponsors Rep. Randy Weber (R-TX), has openly admitted this bill is intended to result in the harm and/or death of American citizens by placing them in a warzone where war crimes are being committed, stating: "I am going to bet that these pro-Hamas supporters wouldn’t last a day, but let’s give them the opportunity". Considering the context of Biden himself verbally stating in a CNN interview on the same exact day that American bombs are being used to target civilians in Gaza in violation of U.S. and international law, this is a very serious implication that could not be a more direct message to the American people.
Even though the text of this bill hasn’t been published, the intent and statements about it indicate this bill is already illegal in at least a dozen different ways. But, as that fact has never stopped any bill from eventually becoming law, even ridiculous proposals such as this one must be taken seriously.
As a reminder, Hamas was designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 1997, and there are already entire sections of US code dedicated to banning American citizens from providing support to such groups. Likewise, “unlawful assembly” is already illegal, along with property damage, disturbing the peace, trespassing, and hundreds of other violations committed by demonstrators/protesters/rioters over the years.
Also, it must be noted that as of now, the sponsors of H.R. 8321 state the penalty of serving "6 months community service" in Gaza shall be administered for ANY conviction of ANY crime on a university campus. Again, without the text of the bill it’s impossible to verify just yet, and this will probably be changed upon publishing, but per the rhetoric issued by Congressmen writing the bill, neither Hamas nor Israel are specifically named...American citizens could be sent to Gaza (with the intent of getting murdered by American bombs) for getting a parking ticket on campus.
Never before have these ideas been so openly unavoidable.
Since October 7th, the events that have unfolded in the Middle East have caused many questions to arise within the American taxpayer. We have seen sitting members of Congress wear the military uniform of a foreign nation inside our Capitol, and the only result has been an effort to make it illegal to notice this fact.
We have seen police agencies snap-to with overwhelming force and impressive military precision in the cracking down of protestors on campuses all around the country...which encourages the taxpayer to wonder why this was NOT done for the past BLM and ANTIFA riots that caused billions of dollars of damage, and left many communities burned to the ground to this day.
Now, the American taxpayer is witnessing their Congressmen openly try to deport dissidents to warzones, with the openly-stated implication that harm shall befall them…all for verbally supporting the wrong group.
Consequently, bills such as these will continue driving the United States over bridge after bridge after bridge too far, and will result in Americans asking unintended and inconvenient questions. Such as: Why is it illegal to voice verbal support for any group, terrorist organization or not? How is speech alone, of any kind and for any cause, a crime? Why is it that the United States refuses to deport illegal immigrants that commit capital crimes, but a pro-Palestinian demonstrator gets a one-way ticket for immediate deportation?
These bills will almost certainly be ignored by most, who will likely say these bills never had a chance at passing, and it's just a political stunt or some grandstanding attempt. Critics will go further, and attempt to shame anyone commenting on these bills as a fear-monger or engage in other gaslighting tactics to downplay the seriousness of these bills, and what their mere introduction means for American society. Most people will adopt one of two stances, one which ignores these bills due to the “it’s not gonna pass so why bother” fallacy, and the other which supports these bills since it would primarily target a demographic which has not done themselves any favors in gaining support with the average American taxpayer.
In both cases, the fact that Congressmen are directly advocating the indirect murder of political dissidents seems to be lost or glossed over. No, this bill probably won’t pass, but the fact that this idea was introduced in the first place, while most people ignore it or downplay it, is deeply concerning.
When political stunts now involve threatening the deportation and murder of ANYONE, let alone taxpaying American citizens, this is worthy of concern as the goalposts have shifted off of the field, and out of the stadium entirely. At this point, quite literally reading text verbatim from American bills in Congress can be seen as being alarmist, which strongly indicates how far the Overton Window has shifted regarding what is happening in Congress and the U.S. government at large.
Regardless, and in the interest of trying to balance the horrendousness that has befallen even the most basic daily news reports, the immediate impact to the American taxpayer is minimal due to the sheer logistics of such complex actions. Considering our recent history, bills have a way of being introduced, voted on, passed, and enacted all within a couple of days, so the potential for this bill to become law (in some form, probably with changes) is a reality. However the logistics of the war in Gaza make enacting this bill (if it were to become law) nearly impossible.
The biggest impact that these bills have on the American people lie with how they are a reflection of how much our country has changed. When a man threatens another, it would do well to take that threat seriously, no matter how remote the possibility of success seems at the time. As such, though Americans at large cannot do anything but take note of the situation, Congressional actions such as these provide excellent motivation for the average American to not sink into anger and despair, but to strive for excellence, adopting a spirit of magnanimity, and understanding that in our time and age we have been given challenges that only we can overcome. We cannot choose the challenges we are given, but we can decide what we do with the time that is granted to us. As time is short throughout our grand human experience, a better use of that time is not to lament, but rather to rejoice that the problems of the world fall upon us to solve.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 8, 2024
//The Wire//2100Z May 8, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ASTRAZENECA PULLS COVID VACCINE FROM MARKET.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: The AstraZeneca COVID vaccine Covishield has been withdrawn from worldwide production. AstraZeneca claims that this drug was pulled from the market due to declining demand and a wide surplus of similar products from other brands.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue at a variety of universities around the United States. Over the weekend, graduation ceremonies were disrupted at many universities as demonstrators begin to solidify what has so far been a less-than-coherent collection of positions/causes related to the pro-Palestine movement. AC: Lately, demonstrations in some cities have shifted to demanding universities divest from financial investment in (or any cooperation with) Israel as a condition for ceasing demonstrations. These efforts are unlikely to achieve the desired result, as 38 states have enacted anti-BDS laws specifically outlawing divestment from the state of Israel only. Consequently demonstrations, disruptions, and general unrest are likely to continue as the various controlling interests (from all participating factions) continue to entrench in varying ideological positions, and dig in for the long-haul this protest season.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: AstraZeneca claims there is no link whatsoever to their drug being pulled from the market a few days after multiple international health groups (and AstraZeneca themselves) have admitted that a major side-effect of this vaccine is Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS), which results in “severe blood clotting events”. Before being pulled from the market, this vaccine was administered in over 150 nations.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 7, 2024
//The Wire//1400Z May 7, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS INVASION OF RAFAH, SEIZES BORDER CROSSING WITH EGYPT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: France states that claims of Foreign Legion soldiers deploying to Ukraine are false. However, the track record of French statements vs. actions is often very contradictory. For instance, Macron himself stated a few weeks ago that French soldiers may be required to deploy to Ukraine, before immediately recanting the statements and stating the opposite. AC: The initial claims of FFL soldiers being deployed to Ukraine are probably half-truths. Right now, France’s official stance is that no FFL soldiers are, or are planned to be, deployed in Ukraine. France also claims that these statements are “Russian disinformation”. This is likely half-true. Right now, almost every single NATO member has troops on the ground in Ukraine, under the excuse of being “advisors” or “observers”. Russian sources probably heard about a couple of battalions of French mercenaries being trained for service in Ukraine, but rather than waiting to embarrass France more directly, the initial sources lost credibility by fabricating details of the alleged deployment, citing details of specific units that are obviously false. France deploying a few hundred FFL soldiers to Ukraine is within reason, highly likely in any case, and has probably already happened. However, by failing to obtain hard evidence, reports of FFL soldiers in Ukraine remain unconfirmable, and easily walked-back by France in the event that these claims were indeed true in the first place. Now, only time will tell how true these claims were, or will be. In short, this story may have been “Russian disinformation” as France claims…but that doesn’t mean that elements of the story aren’t true.
Middle East: The Israeli invasion of Rafah has begun amid very high diplomatic tensions surrounding the proposed ceasefire agreement. Hamas rocket and IED attacks in the north have allegedly intensified following IDF combat actions in the south. IDF forces have conducted a pincer movement along the Philadelphi Corridor, seizing the Rafah Border Crossing and assaulting north into the suburbs of Rafah.
-HomeFront-
USA: Various protests and counter protests continue at various universities throughout the nation. Many of the more high-profile demonstrations and encampments have been cleared out, while others continue on a plethora of issues. The number of universities switching to online classes for the rest of the quarter/semester continues to grow, as do the list of universities that have canceled graduation ceremonies altogether.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though details are impossible to verify, a complex situation appears to have developed surrounding the recent peace talks in Israel. Hamas has claimed that they actually agreed to Israel’s terms (for the most part, including the return of 33 Israeli hostages, the exact number sought by Israel). However, even as the deal was being considered, Israeli troops were in the process of invading Rafah. At the moment, even some Israeli media sources are claiming that Netanyahu never planned for the ceasefire to go through, and made outlandish demands in Israel’s peace proposal with the intent of Hamas denying the deal. Hamas called Israel’s bluff, and actually did agree to almost all of Israel’s demands. As such, many media groups are claiming that Netanyahu is continuing the war solely to save his own government, and that Hamas has been willing to enact a truce for some time. Whether or not these claims are true remains to be seen, however from a possibly criminally-neutral standpoint, the latest assault on Rafah appears to be intended to torpedo the peace deal, and keep the war going for as long as possible.
As the Israeli invasion of Rafah continues, little has been heard from Egypt. As a reminder, Egypt has repeatedly stated that the Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor, or the seizure of the Rafah Border Crossing is a “red line”. However, Egypt has a long history of failing to uphold their “red line” issues. Similarly, the nations of Jordan and Syria have issued the diplomatic equivalent of a strongly-worded email to Israel concerning their actions in Gaza.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire - May 6, 2024
//The Wire//1800Z May 06, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL/GAZA PEACE TALKS FAIL. FRANCE DEPLOYS FOREIGN LEGION TO UKRAINE. PROTESTS ESCALATE IN IRELAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: France begins deploying French Foreign Legion soldiers to frontline combat service in Ukraine. Approximately 1,500 troops will be sent to Ukraine at first, beginning with a few hundred artillery spotters and intelligence personnel.
Middle East: Following the collapse of the latest peace talks in Cairo, Israeli forces have reportedly begun the final phases of the operation to invade Rafah. Locals report mass evacuations have begun as IDF troops stage to take the city. AC: Israel has been planning this operation for weeks, and likely did not fully commit to peace talks as a method of providing a solution to this conflict.
Ireland: Counter-immigration protests continue to grow in size and number following months of building tensions resulting from governmental policies. Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Dublin this morning to protest against immigration, as well as a variety of other issues. Protesters demonstrating against the escalation of the Ukrainian War (and against providing support for Ukraine) were also observed taking part in the overall demonstrations. AC: So far, these are some of the largest demonstrations seen in Ireland in many years. Consequently, various counter-protests (and counter-counter-protests) have begun as well, encompassing a wide variety of unrelated issues.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – Saturday night a man rammed his vehicle into a security barricade at the White House. The man, who has not yet been identified, was discovered to be deceased inside the vehicle. AC: At this time, it is not clear as to if the man was killed in the crash, or if he died prior to the crash. It is also not clear as to if this was a deliberate attack, or an accident.
Pennsylvania: A gunman attempted to murder a local pastor at the Jesus' Dwelling Place Church in North Braddock during a livestream of services on Sunday. The assailant’s firearm suffered a malfunction during the attack, resulting in it failing to fire. After the weapon failed, the assailant was apprehended by churchgoers. The assailant has been identified as Bernard Junior Polite. AC: This attack appears to possibly be the result of a mental health incident, however the assailant did admit that the church was selected as a target of opportunity. As such, constant and overwhelming vigilance and situational awareness continues to be strongly recommended, particularly at religious institutions.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The deployment of the French Foreign Legion, while a serious escalation of the war, is also one which is politically safe for Macron. As Foreign Legion soldiers are not French citizens, there will likely be little backlash against this escalation in France (whereas deploying actual French Army soldiers would cause outrage). Russia’s response to this announcement is not clear, but operationally Russia will almost certainly seek to target the Legion deliberately, simply to make a point.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//
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The Wire GRINTSUM April 28-May 4, 2024
00:00 Introduction
02:25 - Northeast Region
07:10 - Southeast Region
08:44 - West Central Midwest Region
10:51 - Southwest Region
12:17 - Western Region
27:14 - The Sahel
35:05 - The Mediterranean
37:10 - Closing Thoughts
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